The Future of the publishing business

[Garpy]

Been doing a lot of thinking on that recently. I saw this article (http://www.newsweek.com/id/70983/page/1) this morning and it stirred up some thoughts again on the subject.

What's the future of our dear ol' book business, eh? Where's it all heading? Well, imho, the future isn't so bright. It could be summarised thus...

1. Digital files (ebooks) downloaded for free by a generation of customers who have grown up with the idea that digital content (music files, film files, hacked game files) should be completely free.

2. Starved of profit as print sales diminish, publishers, lit agencies and book retailers will shrink, merge and eventually vanish.

3. A world full of writers submitting their mostly awful work for people to read for free - much like with YouTube, everyone will think they can make fantastic video content...but sadly, it'll mostly be mush, and a pain in the arse to wade through for the few gems.

4. Most published authors will find their income drying up to a tiny trickle, derived from the few legitimate digital sales of their work through some book equivalent of iTunes.

*sigh*

First of all....I wonder if anyone here can step in and convince me I'm utterly wrong in predicting such a gloomy future (and thus cheer me up immensely?)

Secondly, if no-one can cheer me up and we're agreed this is the shape of things to come, how the heck will future authors make an income?

If we accept that the music business is similar enough in structure to ours that it serves as a useful seeing-stone to predict where our industry is headed, then it really don't look too good. With the likes of Radiohead, Trent Reznor, and Prince releasing their latest albums for free, the discussion being had amongst musicians is that income in the future will be somewhat harder to come by, being derived from product associated to their music, eg: t-shirts, key-rings, gig ticket sales, whilst the music itself will be percieved as being valueless....little more than a teaser for merchandise sales.

So, if we take that, and construct the equivalent parallel for future authors....we'll be handing out our - worthless - novels for people to casually consume for free, in the hope that we'd build enough reader-loyalty to derive a modest income from charging money to go and do talks, flogging mugs and pens and novelty items on the side.

That all seems pretty grim to me.

Anyway...I'd love to see what others here think about this. Is this too pessimistic a prediction? Are there some rays of hope?

[Will Lavender]

I don't know if using the music industry as a template for publishing is apt. Music doesn't change forms when it goes electronic; a sound is a sound and a song is a song. A book completely morphs when it goes electronic, so I don't think there's much to worry about in that regard. I mean, there've been e-books and e-readers for years and still we have books, we have authors, we have bookstores that are jam-packed every time you walk in them.

I, personally, do not like electronic books. Never read one, likely never will. I have to have the book in front of me, the smell of the paper, the sound of the pages turning. And I assume I'm not alone, given how many paper-and-glue books that are published each year.

Also, I don't think there's any sort of rabid desire to pirate books. Those who read books are a bit of a different crowd than those who download music or pirate DVDs. They're more old-fashioned. More stuck to their ways. And that's a good thing, as I don't see there being a hard push to leak the next Jonathan Franzen novel to the web before it's published.

I was talking to one of the folks at Crown last week on my NYC trip. This woman sells electronic and audio rights for Crown, and she said that she didn't care for electronic books. This is a woman who deals in electronic books, mind you.

I think the business will change, as businesses do. Publishing now looks a lot different than it did in the 1980s, I'm sure. But I don't see the written word going the way of the music business. They're just two completely different art forms.

[Shadow_Ferret]

Wow, what have you been reading? Brave New World and 1984? That's a depressing future. And I completely disagree. Maybe things will move to digital, but I don't think it'll happen in my lifetime. The readers are still too expensive and hardly what I'd call portable.

But then I disagree that music is moving to all free digital. I think there are many of us who enjoy quality over the compressed, digitized MP3 format stuff and CDs will never go away.

I'll bet you think movies will all go away, too, and you can only download those, too.

Publishing is as healthy as ever. Movies are still setting attendance records. And ... oh, wait, I just read that Led Zepplin has finally agreed to release all their music to digital downloaders.

The end truly is near.

[BruceJ]

I have to have the book in front of me, the smell of the paper, the sound of the pages turning. And I assume I'm not alone, given how many paper-and-glue books that are published each year.
Amen, Will, and I hope we're in the majority.

Crystal balls are notoriously fuzzy, particularly in areas of the abstract and the farther they try to look down the road. There will always be those who appreciate quality--and those who like the keychain gizmo proclaiming he/she likes quality, or at least the latest fad, which, of course, must be quality or it wouldn't have caught on, right? ;) I'm not sure an entire industry is going to tip decisively toward either extreme.

I'm more optimistic, I guess. This is the "Information Age" and writing is at the heart of it--dissemination modes are only the means. I think that opens up more opportunities than it limits.

[seun]

1. Digital files (ebooks) downloaded for free by a generation of customers who have grown up with the idea that digital content (music files, film files, hacked game files) should be completely free.


I don't know if the rest of your thoughts will come to pass, but I can definitely see this happening. But then we're both miserable bastards. :D

[maestrowork]

Free online/electronic content is here to stay, and many of us might have to adapt. However, I agree that most people still prefer to read print (even though e-Ink technology might eventually change that). Audiobooks also will flourish -- but listening to a book is different than reading it, IMHO.

[Garpy]

I don't know if the rest of your thoughts will come to pass, but I can definitely see this happening. But then we're both miserable bastards. :D

Heh. I am that. One of life's eternal pessimists (as you well know).

As regard previous postings. When I get all miserable on this subject, the reply is often the ol' 'there will always be a market for book fetishists who love the smell of glue and print'. However, the point is, and it's an important point....that's a niche market. And with each passing year, as nature's cruel attrition whittles their number down, it'll get even niche-ier.

The current generation of cumsumers don't have that loyalty to print that old farts like I do. They also expect more free stuff. They also read a whole lot less. Well actually, they do read more, but it's txt talk, or MSN chat...little bite-size chunks of writing - certainly not as many novels (JK Rowling withstanding..which I suspect was an abberration, not a trend)

[Toothpaste]

Well it may happen, things evolve, who knows. Right now I'm focussing on the present. I think it is important to keep an eye on what is going on, but we can't dwell on it because there is nothing we can do about it. Currently we do not live in a world where people download books onto book shaped laptops or whathaveyou. We may someday. And when that day come, we'll adapt. Right now, I have enough to worry about with the present, can't get too hyped up on stuff that hasn't happened yet.

[Will Lavender]

As regard previous postings. When I get all miserable on this subject, the reply is often the ol' 'there will always be a market for book fetishists who love the smell of glue and print'. However, the point is, and it's an important point....that's a niche market. And with each passing year, as nature's cruel attrition whittles their number down, it'll get even niche-ier.

But it's only been a niche for two centuries. (And really, it's that niche-iness that makes it difficult for pirates to control publishing. As I said above, there isn't that obsessive yearning for new stuff out of publishing the way there is with music and film. Outside of Rowling, ever heard of anybody hawking an unpublished book on a website for double its price? Neither have I. That's the blessing and the curse of the publishing biz, I guess.)

My former teacher, Lynne Tillman, has written extensively on this. Her claim is simplistic, but true: the novel (and she speaks of the novel, but I think you could throw in the catch-all term "book" as well) has been pronounced dead for more than 100 years, yet still there it is on the shelves.

I still maintain that the electronic media will not affect books the way it does other media, because books are not electronic in the first place. There is an adaptation that has to be made that doesn't have to be made with radio or compact discs or film or photography. And look, e-stuff has been around for years now, and the book has been virtually unchanged. It's not like it's a new invention. I remember reading about e-readers a decade ago, and still it's a product that toils in obscurity.

[seun]

Heh. I am that. One of life's eternal pessimists (as you well know).


After reading your last book, I did get that idea. ;)

[Shadow_Ferret]

Even if books are replaced by electronic media, it won't be free. Isn't that what the current SWG strike is about?

[Garpy]

Ahh...yes, the concept of e-books has been around a few years, true. But the point is several things have changed:

-e-ink. Seriously...makes a huge difference.
-availablity of content: ten years ago, the only ebooks around were most probably the St James Bible and an anthology of nautical poems.
-the 'download' habit: ten years ago the idea of downloading digital 'stuff' onto a handheld 'thingy' was alien to most people.

Because someone was 100yrs premature announcing the novel was dead, doesn't mean the business is in anyway made safe. Sad, but true.

I think, in all honesty, you'd agree with me that in the long run, printed books will largely disappear, becoming a collector's underground industry. The serious debate is over how quickly that would happen. Hmmm?

[gerrydodge]

I think reading is part of a familial tradition--not exclusively, but certainly mostly--and so my children and the children of other readers love books; love going to book stores and buying books; opening books and feeling them in their hands; and then reading them, privately, alone, without noise or talk or any of the other things that intrude on the solitude of that experience.

[Shadow_Ferret]

I think, in all honesty, you'd agree with me that in the long run, printed books will largely disappear, becoming a collector's underground industry. The serious debate is over how quickly that would happen. Hmmm?

I'm an optimist. I won't agree with you. I think there will always be a market for books, if not hard cover, at least paper backs.

But then, I'm still on the lookout for vinyl.

[Momento Mori]

I take issue with some of the things said in the article:

Jeff Bezos, taken from Newsweek Article:
"Music and video have been digital for a long time, and short-form reading has been digitized, beginning with the early Web. But long-form reading really hasn't."

If by "short-form reading", Jeff's talking about short stories, then whilst I agree that the web has been good at creating more markets for short story writers (lower overheads being the obvious benefit for new start-ups, compared with print media), it does not seem to have led to an upsurge in people buying publications to read short stories.

Jeff Bezos, taken from Newsweek Article:
The battery has to last for a while, he adds, since there's nothing sadder than a book you can't read because of electile dysfunction. (The Kindle gets as many as 30 hours of reading on a charge, and recharges in two hours.)

That right there is why I'm doubtful as to whether printed books will ever be truly replaced. I can go to my bookshelves and pick up any book I want at any time I want and flick through the pages. With any electronic reader, if I'm low on battery power, I'll need to make sure it's charged or find somewhere to charge it if I don't want my reading time to be interrupted. That's simply too much hassle.

Taken from Newsweek Article:
The handheld device can also hold several shelves' worth of books: 200 of them onboard, hundreds more on a memory card and a limitless amount in virtual library stacks maintained by Amazon. Also, the Kindle allows you to search within the book for a phrase or name.

But I'd still have to download my book first, and how long will that take? What happens if my connection breaks midway through (iPod's music store still charges you for the music, is that what Amazon/wherever are going to do?) What happens if there's a bug in the Kindle which corrupts the text or a significant part of it? I can't think of anything more frustrating than getting to the climax of a murder mystery and finding it's all turned into wingdings.

As regards finding words or phrases - well, so what? That's useful if you're an academic or whoever and you need to find a particular segment or quote, but are there many readers out there who'd want the same function?

Taken from Newsweek Article:
Amazon prices Kindle editions of New York Times best sellers and new releases in hardback at $9.99.

Are there any Americans out there who can tell me whether this is cheap/reasonable/whatever? Specifically, is it cheaper than physical books on Amazon's site once the discounts are applied?

Taken from Newsweek Article:
Bezos explains that it's only fair to charge less for e-books because you can't give them as gifts, and due to restrictive antipiracy software, you can't lend them out or resell them.

Well, how's that going to work? Most of the books I get are presents - I give books as presents as well. If I can't do that on the Kindle, then how is it supposed to replace the printed word?

There's this point that keeps getting made in the article about how the younger generations do everything on screen. Well, they do certain things on screen (like check emails quickly or skim through documents) but whenever anyone in my office has to actually sit down and read something, they print it out.

10 years ago, technical pundits were predicting that on-line news forums would signal the death of newspapers, but they're still here - all that's happened is that technology gives them additional support. I do find it interesting that at the end of the article they talk about books being dead in 50 years time.

MM

[a_sharp]

I remember reading about e-readers a decade ago, and still it's a product that toils in obscurity.

I think this is a key point and one that is overlooked. The e-reader technology has had a decade to mature (a lifetime to digital tech) and yet it barely gets mention for market share. I was particularly concerned about it when a fellow writer's club member and tech columnist touted his e-reader that he could carry around and read while waiting, riding, flying, etc. I realized he had a vested interest in the thing, but expected something to happen. It hasn't in the six years since.

Predicting trends is tough. However, I think Garpy's point about a generation of freebie readers can't be ignored. How it will affect book publishing is anyone's guess, but I don't think the demographics are the same. We have computers in the classroom now, and they enhance the learning experience in many ways, but still the textbook is king, and today's youth are experiencing a media mix that accepts printed material along with digital. The relatively few kids who grow up loving printed books today will be tomorrow's printed book buyer, just as with generations before them.

Is it a tossup? Not quite yet. I think before print goes out something else will come along that we can't even foresee today. Maybe a mind meld?

[E.M.Sterling]

One other thing is that holding a book in your hand can never be the same as reading it on the computer screen. Those who have a love for books will always have a love for books. There is something very intimate about touching pages and holding your face close to the print while you huddle in the bed at night with your trusty reading lamp and a pillow to prop up on.
I personally dislike e-books and I find no joy in reading them. However give me the same story on physcial paper and you can woo me. I love books. The smell, the touch, the sounds that the pages make, for me at least, books are here to stay.

[Garpy]

Not liking to 'read stuff on a screen' is exactly why eReaders have been a flop up until now. It has something to do with the refresh rate/flicker that tires the eyes and makes it a real chore. For example, I also need to print stuff out before I can read it. However....like I mentioned earlier, some very important hurdles have been successfully jumped with regard to display technology. Look...I've seen an e-Ink display, it really is quite amazing.

As for the touch of paper, the rustle of the page....well, I've got no answer for that. I can't say that the sound effect of a page being turned has had any notable affect on me.

Here's one thing to consider. 200+ books on a device that is about the same size as a paperback, and a touch lighter. Think about holiday reading. How many trashy paperbacks do you take on holiday to read beside the pool? How many times have you purchased a cool-sounding book at the airport, only to find, three chapters in, it sucked? How many times did you wish you'd packed your favourite novel/series in your suitcase as 'back up?'

I honestly think having a library of your most loved books in one hand, trumps the rustle of a page, or the smell of ink.

However, I'll be honest with you. I don't own an eReader. They're still way too expensive, and until someone can design a casing that'll allow me to drop it in the bath and not destroy it (and c'mon that's not rocket science)...then I still think the print-killing eReader has yet to hit the market.

Just a matter of time though.

[a_sharp]

Yeah, last time I dropped a book in the bath I just toweled it dry and kept on reading, even the pages stuck together. Hah! Can't do that with an e-reader.

[kuwisdelu]

I'm an optimist. I won't agree with you. I think there will always be a market for books, if not hard cover, at least paper backs.

But then, I'm still on the lookout for vinyl.

I agree.

The technology for ebooks has been around for a long time, but they've never really taken off. Laptops have been around for a long time, but you don't see many downloading illegal pdf files of novels to read (I actually have seen a few people do this with the new Harry Potter--BUT they all still bought the book because they needed that REAL feeling of reading a REAL book).

Even if the old ebook readers were old and clunky, they've had a decade to mature and become a hit. Compare this to the ipod or mp3 player, which isn't any older, but has become ubiquitous now. Compare it to the iPhone, which is very new, very buggy, and will undoubtedly not become practical for a few more years, but it's still a hit. But such things are inherently different from books, and consumers of these products are inherently different from readers.

Many of you probably edit your WIPs while they're still on the computer a little bit, at least, but even the most computer-savvy of you--don't you still print it off at some point? And editors still take the written word, not the binary-produced image of one. Even those who take email queries print off your manuscripts to read.

Music is accessible to almost anyone. Ask anyone on earth and they'll almost certainly listen to some kind of music. Therefore, the likelihood of abuse is much, much higher. There are masses and masses of people who don't appreciate the effort it takes to compose/write/play the songs they listen to, and they have no problem downloading it for free. However, today there are many, many audiobuffs who like good, quality music, and appreciate it, and--even when it's available for free--buy it in a variety of forms, from mp3 to CD to DVD to vinyl.

The intrinsic difference between the music industry and the publishing industry is that the vast majority of readers behave like these audiobuffs would with music. There are much, much fewer readers than music listeners, and so the majority of them are of the type that will value the written word in its printed form, pay a fair price for it, and cherish it for years and years to come.

And like Shadow_Ferret said, even in this age of downloading culture, there are still many of us who flock to the local music shop and shell out several Andrew Jackson's on good ol' 180g vinyl. Even though we're 18.

[Garpy]

Hmmm, to be fair...last time I dropped a book in the bath, it swelled up to twice its size, the pages stuck together and I needed to leave it on a radiator for about four days until it was dry enough to try reading again. So, whilst it was still 'useable' after being bath-dunked, the book, as a hardware platform isn't entirely bath-compatible.

[JimmyB27]

I'm missing something here. Who cares if the book disappears? People will still want to read stuff on their swanky new ebook readers. And who's going to write the stuff they want to read? Writers, of course!

[Garpy]

Yeah, indeed. But here's the thing. Once the printed format vanishes in favour of the digital format, then you can kiss goodbye to a large chunk of the money that makes this business tick. Why? I hear you ask. Because, digital files are hackable, copy-able, share-able...and that means, most people, most of the time, will grab their holiday read from bit-torrent the night before they go on holiday.

[JimmyB27]

Right, that's why the music and film industry's have disappeared.

Oh..wait.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/technology/4718249.stm
It's an old article but:
The study found that regular downloaders of unlicensed music spent an average of £5.52 a month on legal digital music.

This compares to just £1.27 spent by other music fans.

[maestrowork]

I am not sure, Garpy. The same has been said about movies and music for ages and yet artists and producers are still making oodles of money. Yes, piracy is going to be with us for a long time, more and more so, but I think people are still going to pay for content, if it's something they want. For example, Ratatouille is #1 purchase/download on iTune this week, even though I'm sure you can download it for free on bit-torrent anywhere.

What may change is the business model and royalty standards. But artists and content providers are still going to get paid. And if the WGA strike is any indication (it's mostly over Internet royalties), I don't think the day when people can freely and legally rip off an artist/writer will come any time soon.

[Azure Skye]

1. Digital files (ebooks) downloaded for free by a generation of customers who have grown up with the idea that digital content (music files, film files, hacked game files) should be completely free.

Maybe. I do know there are a lot of us, young and old, who like to hold books in our hands. I'm one who will be very reluctant to purchase an e-book and will only do it if I have no other choice. Downloading for free? As with any type of media there will always be those who will try to get it for nothing and then there will be the rest of us who think the artist should get paid their due. I'm not too pessimistic about all of it yet.

2. Starved of profit as print sales diminish, publishers, lit agencies and book retailers will shrink, merge and eventually vanish.

I don't think that will happen any time soon, maybe not in our lifetime. But, I have faith that the industry will adapt because it is, after all, a business.

3. A world full of writers submitting their mostly awful work for people to read for free - much like with YouTube, everyone will think they can make fantastic video content...but sadly, it'll mostly be mush, and a pain in the arse to wade through for the few gems.

I say, let them. Let the crap saturate the Internets so the rest of us stand a chance with agents and publishers. If the slush pile gets thinner, then maybe some of us stand a better chance. Maybe.

4. Most published authors will find their income drying up to a tiny trickle, derived from the few legitimate digital sales of their work through some book equivalent of iTunes.



Like I said before, the industry will find away to keep the money flowing. We'll all adapt and think of creative ways to get around all of this. Right now, it just seems to be happening so fast but who knows what could happen within the next five years.

And ditto to what Toothpaste said.

[maestrowork]

I agree... let people make crap and post them for free... I think it's actually exciting. And if a talented person finds an outlet and eventually succeed without, say, going to film school first, good for them. The thing is, 99% of the crud out there is forgettable -- people wouldn't pay for them anyway. Just like the slush pile -- just because everyone think they can write doesn't mean people will want to buy their work. Same with music -- do you know how many amateur songs and music are out there? But people are still buying CDs and digital music. Quality still counts, and it that will not be obsolete no matter the format.

There are a lot of blogs, websites, online content out there but much of them are unreadable drabs. I wouldn't read them even if you pay me. If there's something good, people will pay for it.

[DeleyanLee]

I've got a single reason for not liking ebooks and that's the 4-6000 volumes of regular books that I have in my personal reference library. That's not including fiction titles.

When CD's first came on and got popular, I had an extensive collection of vinyl. "Don't worry" my then-husband assured me. "The quality is much better and everything you have now will come out in CD. Trust me." Because I was young and stupid, I trusted him and he trashed my entire collection of LPs and 45s. Still, to this day, I regret that immensely because only about a quarter of what I have is available on CD.

No argument that the technology is or will be good. But there is no way I'm going to be able to replace many of the university-produced scholarly works on any digital device. They just won't bother translating the material. And even if they do, then I'll have to pay for the material AGAIN when I've already paid $40-75 a title for it. I really resent that concept.

Oh, and before I can do that, I have to shell out many hundreds of dollars for the ability to read the downloads when I can spend a small fraction of that cost and be able to read a book with just the equipment I was born with. (Of course, there is part of me trying to picture movies of the future where people are trying to hide behind their e-readers in the cafe or subway so they're not spotted by the person they're following. ROFL!)

Books have survived the last many centuries because they are damned good at fulfilling the need we have for them. Until technology can fully replace that need, it's not going to happen. And, frankly, I'm sick enough of the constant technology learn curve that I hope that it won't happen in my lifetime.

Are there any Americans out there who can tell me whether this is cheap/reasonable/whatever? Specifically, is it cheaper than physical books on Amazon's site once the discounts are applied?

And, FWIW, if you're downloading mass-market NYT bestselling novels, $9.99 is a rip-off. If you're downloading a hard cover or a non-fiction title, then it's more reasonable.

[donroc]

While those of my generation live, give or take a decade, there will be plenty of those who prefer to read books instead of staring into the glare of a computer screen and also enjoy the tactile experience as well. What happens after we are gone is anyone's guess.

www.donaldmichaelplatt.com

.

[MarkEsq]

Yeah, indeed. But here's the thing. Once the printed format vanishes in favour of the digital format, then you can kiss goodbye to a large chunk of the money that makes this business tick. Why? I hear you ask. Because, digital files are hackable, copy-able, share-able...and that means, most people, most of the time, will grab their holiday read from bit-torrent the night before they go on holiday.

Near my house there is a specialized "shop" where you can just walk in, sign up and talk stuff home to read. They are sharing the same novels with hundreds of people, all for free. Plus they have copying devices there and, as Garpy indicates, you can stroll in the day before your vacation and help yourself to holiday reading material at no charge. It's called a "li-berry" or "lib-rary" or some such thing. I'm going to picket the place.

Seriously though, I see the concern but my novel needs to sell enough paper-and-glue copies for me to retire and buy three houses (Aspen, Paris, and St. Thomas, if you must know). So I can't give up hope, I just can't...

[Garpy]

Jimmy, there's a reason why musicians are adopting a new model. There's also a reason why the music industry's generating shrinking revenues. You need to find out what hardcore music fans were spending on music five, ten years ago. My guess is that it was alot more than £5.52 a month.

[JohnDavidPaxton]

No it's true. It's all over.

You should all give up now.

And tell your agents that they should sign me when you're giving them the bad news.

I truly believe the opposite will happen. Technology, and on demand mediums, as well as free advertising, will shift the paradigm from mega-book-marts to a world of small publishers and first time authors printing books. On pages. That people open and read.

There is no dirth (could have sworn that's a word, why is AW giving me the read line of dyslexia?) of publishers who have just recently started up and say "PLEASE SUBMIT TO US! Even if we will only publish 10 books or so this year." I have to imagine most of them are not actively trying to lose as much money as possible, and therefor there has to be some market for small publishers.

And as far as piracy goes: I've said it a hundred times, I'll say it a hundred more, and few ill listen or take the time to actually look at the numbers or listen to the economists.

PIRACY. HELPS. SALES. And people whom are pirated do a great deal of business and make a great deal of money. It is free, dynamic word of mouth advertising that convinces people who would never spend money on any of your products to do so. Study after study, time after time, artist after artist.

As far as the in print format going away? I don't know. Nobody does. That will be an interesting one.

[Christine N.]

I agree that the new technology is much better at reproducing the 'book' experience. I've looked at the new Amazon gizmo, and the screen is AMAZING. E-paper, e-ink, whatever they call it, it's not hard on the eyes and really IS like reading from dead tree format.

I like the idea of being able to cart about a bunch of books at once. If it happens that I can download books from vendors besides Amazon (like Fictionwise) that would make me happy, because FW's e-books are inexpensive.

But it won't happen until Amazon slashes the price in half. Seriously - $400 ??? No way. I like the Mobipocket format, which is what I think the Kindle is using - IMO it's the best of the e-book formats. But I can think of far better uses for $400.

And yes, I have a site bookmarked that has free PIRATED books for download. Mostly NY times best sellers. I bookmarked the site because I sent the link along to the publishers of some of the books.

[virtue_summer]

I agree that there will be more ebooks and digital content in the future. I don't agree that it will all be free. People will always pay. Things that are free may be cool in some sense but will also be suspect. It's the same way that people will spend a lot more money on a designer label than on a knockoff, the same reason that many people I know will spend the money to buy the actual DVD than to get a pirate copy. If they pay more, they think they're getting more, that it's better quality, and most of the time they're right. My aunt had a DVD the other day that was like pirated and the whole time we were watching it she was so disappointed because it lacked the clarity of a regularly purchased DVD. VCR's have been around forever but people still purchased videos. There are DVD recorders now. People still buy the DVDs. I think this will especially be true for content on the net. There's so much stuff on the net that one of the ways to wade through the junk is to find content that has passed a test (been paid for). Actually, if anything I think there's likely to become a higher standard for being paid for your work. People can get mediocre and bad for free, so they'll pay for excellent. Call me an optimist but it makes sense to me.

[NeuroFizz]

I suspect the written word will always have a commercial value. As technology changes, I'm confident business-types will find a way to still wring a profit from it.

People have been putting free stuff on the web for years now. I don't see widspread panic from the publishing companies.

If all of the perennial best-selling authors put their works on the web for free, that would open a number of slots on the bestsellers list to other authors.

If it seems too good to be true, it probably is. If the doomsayers speak of total ruination, don't bet your life savings on it, or they will be right.

[ishtar'sgate]

Although I'm not as informed as many of you I know I probably will never read an e-book. I love the real thing far too much. But my kids might. We all have to adapt to change and I doubt the publishing industry will go down without a huge effort at finding ways to adapt to technological changes and threats to its existence.
Linnea

[blacbird]

-availablity of content: ten years ago, the only ebooks around were most probably the St James Bible and an anthology of nautical poems.

Nope. The Gutenberg people have been digitizing public-domain texts and making them available for free since the 1970s. Even a decade ago there were hundreds of thousands of texts available, including about every classic public-domain text imaginable.

caw

[tearsofsirion]

The inability to give or receive books, never mind the exchange of such, is what kills it for me. My friends and I pass books around all the time, never mind my mother and I (oh, I'm finished with this, you should try it...) We all still buy a large quantity of books - in general our houses are overflowing with them - yet we read lots of stuff "for free". Yet in the end, it just expands all our circles of expertise and genres that we read. I would never had bought any Laurell K. Hamilton if my friend had not introduced me to the fluff, and now I've bought at least two of them, for us both. Same with Harry Potter and Janet Evanovich, with my mom. E-books will come, yet print will be alive for a long time, as long as friends and books exist, imho. I read to my son everyday, his room is full of books. He likes video games too. It's a big world, and my hope is that there is enough room for all forms of expression within it.

[J. R. Tomlin]

No one pays for MP3 files? Really? Don't tell that to iTunes who seems to be making a killing from selling music files as well as TV and Movie files.

Business models change. I suggest you read Eric Flint's lengthy articles saying that giving away his books (done on Baen--a book PUBLISHER mind you) INCREASES his sales.

[Garpy]

No it's true. It's all over.

You should all give up now.

And tell your agents that they should sign me when you're giving them the bad news.

I truly believe the opposite will happen. Technology, and on demand mediums, as well as free advertising, will shift the paradigm from mega-book-marts to a world of small publishers and first time authors printing books. On pages. That people open and read.

There is no dirth (could have sworn that's a word, why is AW giving me the read line of dyslexia?) of publishers who have just recently started up and say "PLEASE SUBMIT TO US! Even if we will only publish 10 books or so this year." I have to imagine most of them are not actively trying to lose as much money as possible, and therefor there has to be some market for small publishers.

And as far as piracy goes: I've said it a hundred times, I'll say it a hundred more, and few ill listen or take the time to actually look at the numbers or listen to the economists.

PIRACY. HELPS. SALES. And people whom are pirated do a great deal of business and make a great deal of money. It is free, dynamic word of mouth advertising that convinces people who would never spend money on any of your products to do so. Study after study, time after time, artist after artist.

As far as the in print format going away? I don't know. Nobody does. That will be an interesting one.

Surprisingly, I'm ambivalent about a digital future. It will level the playing somewhat field for newbie authors. So, you know, no one needs to hit the panic button. The central thrust of my post is that, the structure of the business we know is changing. That the whole business would need to look at different ways of monetising the creation and distribution of stories. And as we're now seeing musicians having to be creative in how they earn a crust, so too might authors.

[Garpy]

No one pays for MP3 files? Really? Don't tell that to iTunes who seems to be making a killing from selling music files as well as TV and Movie files.

Business models change. I suggest you read Eric Flint's lengthy articles saying that giving away his books (done on Baen--a book PUBLISHER mind you) INCREASES his sales.

No, see...obviously someone is paying for music files. Hell, I bought one last week. But, I think it's safe to say, the Led Zeppelin level incomes, belong to yesteryear, courtesy of the good ol' bit torrent et al.

[chartreuse]

Anyway...I'd love to see what others here think about this. Is this too pessimistic a prediction? Are there some rays of hope?

Hope...hmmm. How about this?

You and I will probably be dead before this comes to pass in earnest. The transition of books to electronic media is just not as easy a fit as it has been with music and television, and therefore it will take much longer.

If we're not actually dead, at least we'll be old enough that the Kindle's ability to provide every book in large type will be very much appreciated.

[Garpy]

I fancy it wont be the Kindle that sets the eReader business going. More likely Apple will come up with some super-sexy, slim ergonomic must-have handheld thingy, of which one function will be reading eBooks.

[JohnDavidPaxton]

Surprisingly, I'm ambivalent about a digital future. It will level the playing somewhat field for newbie authors. So, you know, no one needs to hit the panic button. The central thrust of my post is that, the structure of the business we know is changing. That the whole business would need to look at different ways of monetising the creation and distribution of stories. And as we're now seeing musicians having to be creative in how they earn a crust, so too might authors.

To be honest, I don't know what you're talking about as far as musicians being creative to earn a living. As a pizza delivery boy a few years back I became so frustrated at the radio that I pried it out of my car with a crowbar during a shift. This was 2001 or 2002, and I haven't turned on the radio since. So most of my information about music comes from other sources.

I do know that Radiohead recently said "feel free to steal our album" by which they said "pay us whatever you think it's worth." I don't know how that turned out for them, but I am curious to see the numbers. I know Trent Reznor says that the only way to support artists is to not buy music until the labels are dead and gone.

But just as they are doing these crazy, avant garde things, I understand it that the barren wasteland of radio is basically the same as I left it: Pop, diminishing sales and trite, trite, trite stuff.

On the other hand, music that I discover from legal leaking sites, steaming sites, and so forth, is often very pleasing to me. So I think that there will be a fair amount of this going forward in the writing medium if we open up the box. That is to say, talent coming forward out of obscurity when they couldn't go through the barred gate.

You may be dismayed that 99% of the stuff put out there will be crap. But it suits me pretty well. After all, I'm not the guy who goes slogging through YouTube to find something interesting, I'm just the guy who clicks on the link when someone recommends it.

And that's why I think egalitarian media is so neat-o.

[pepperlandgirl]

Been doing a lot of thinking on that recently. I saw this article (http://www.newsweek.com/id/70983/page/1) this morning and it stirred up some thoughts again on the subject.

What's the future of our dear ol' book business, eh? Where's it all heading? Well, imho, the future isn't so bright. It could be summarised thus...

1. Digital files (ebooks) downloaded for free by a generation of customers who have grown up with the idea that digital content (music files, film files, hacked game files) should be completely free.



Free items generate sales. It seems counter-intuitive, but it is true.



2. Starved of profit as print sales diminish, publishers, lit agencies and book retailers will shrink, merge and eventually vanish.

What? The way the music and movie industries are starved for profit? People will become accustomed to receiving their content online, but they will also adjust to the new way of commerce. Trust me. All of this technology seems very strange to us now, but in a few years, people will download their entertainment for a fee as casually as you pay for cable.


3. A world full of writers submitting their mostly awful work for people to read for free - much like with YouTube, everyone will think they can make fantastic video content...but sadly, it'll mostly be mush, and a pain in the arse to wade through for the few gems.

That's happening right this second. All the time. It's not hurting anything or destroying anything, and it's not related to digital media.

4. Most published authors will find their income drying up to a tiny trickle, derived from the few legitimate digital sales of their work through some book equivalent of iTunes.


The book equivalent of iTunes? Like Fictionwise.com? That site is freaking awesome and doesn't hurt my sales at all.

All of these "ereaders will never be big! I need real paper!" posts make me laugh. No, you'll never enjoy ereaders, that doesn't mean the technology won't catch on. My sister literally does not remember a time without the Internet. The high school students I'm teaching now took programming classes along side their English and math classes and view it as a second language. I am already more than comfortable reading things online, and though I love books, I find them very frustrating and inconvenient in comparison to digital books.

The technology is coming, but it is simply going to augment our current options, not replace them.

[burgy61]

This is a topic that I have been thinking about lately also. In my life I have seen music go from vinyl to digital and the industry adapted. Musicians still make music and money and the same company's are still in business. Yes, how people read is changing, but writers still need to write or there is nothing to read. When people stop reading then I'll start to worry about writers not being able to make a living doing what they love.

[Garpy]

'...All of these "ereaders will never be big! I need real paper!" posts make me laugh. No, you'll never enjoy ereaders, that doesn't mean the technology won't catch on...'


Indeed, we ignore the eReader at our peril. Point is though, that it will change the structure of the book business. The classic five step chain:

author > agent > publisher > retailer > customer

....will become something like this...

author > e-distributor > customer.

Good news in that it'll spread income more evenly amongst writers. But I can't help feeling the volume of revenue generated will be smaller, largely due to piracy leakage. But hey, who knows....that might turn out to be the perfect economic model - smaller incomes but more evenly distributed. None of this JK Rowling/Dan Brown-earning hundreds of millions, whilst the rest of the writing fraternity struggle to earn what a Walmart shelf-stacker earns.

[D.L.Steele]

You bring up a very interesting point. I think it's a point that is in the early stages of being addressed in other industries. The writers strike going on right now is a good example. Their work is being put out on web sites for people to see for free and they aren't getting paid for it, so they are pushing back.

They will end up getting their percentage for the work that they've done which will continue setting the framework for how we will be able to make a living in a digital world.

That's just my opinion on the subject

[jamiehall]

I'll tell you something. People always say that new technology will obliterate the old. Here's a list of things I've read in articles for years:

1) Hydroponics will replace dirt farming. It's more efficient, easier to keep plants free of disease and can be put anywhere with artificial lighting, such as skyscraper basements.

What happened? Nothing. Dirt is dirt cheap and it works pretty well. Plants evolved to be perfectly matched to dirt.

2) Totally electronic files will replace all paper. The next generation will hardly know what paper is.

What happened? The rise of computers actually increased the amount of paper used.

3) Flying vehicles will replace land-based cars.

What happened? Cars are gradually getting different engines, moving toward alternative fuels, but the expectation is that they won't be flying for a long time. One reason is that flying is much harder to learn than driving and the smallest mishap can be much deadlier. If your land-based car quits suddenly, you just push it or call a tow truck. If your flying car quits suddenly, you're likely to die.

People love to make these predictions, but reality is more complicated. New technology does not automatically equate to better technology, and even better technology does not necessarily conform to human wants and to cost-effectiveness. New technology has to be far superior in several different ways before it has a chance to obliterate the previous technology. Otherwise, it just co-exists.

[pepperlandgirl]

'...All of these "ereaders will never be big! I need real paper!" posts make me laugh. No, you'll never enjoy ereaders, that doesn't mean the technology won't catch on...'


Indeed, we ignore the eReader at our peril. Point is though, that it will change the structure of the book business. The classic five step chain:

author > agent > publisher > retailer > customer

....will become something like this...

author > e-distributor > customer.

Good news in that it'll spread income more evenly amongst writers. But I can't help feeling the volume of revenue generated will be smaller, largely due to piracy leakage. But hey, who knows....that might turn out to be the perfect economic model - smaller incomes but more evenly distributed. None of this JK Rowling/Dan Brown-earning hundreds of millions, whilst the rest of the writing fraternity struggle to earn what a Walmart shelf-stacker earns.

So you're saying something like iTunes is going to totally replace publishers and agents? No, that'll never happen. Because nobody is going to buy (or pirate) crap. And that's exactly what will happen if everybody just uploads their "brilliant" work to the Internet. You'd get pages and pages of slush piles. Go to fanfiction.net to get an idea of what I'm talking about. People will pay for quality (or at least a known product). That is why certain epublishers are flourishing and others are not.

When it comes to media, the market is driven completely by the consumers. Consumers want quality work (by some definition of quality) that is cheap and convenient. They won't sacrifice the first for the last two. Not on the scale of the entire market.

[Garpy]

If you want an example of what the market can do for a medium, just look at digital TV. An almost infinite choice of crappy reality shows and shopping channels....where once we had four or five channels of - compared to today - quality tv.

[jamiehall]

If you want an example of what the market can do for a medium, just look at digital TV. An almost infinite choice of crappy reality shows and shopping channels....where once we had four or five channels of - compared to today - quality tv.

I think that's a matter of opinion, and how exactly you measure it. Back when we had only 4 or 5 channels, I didn't like most of what was on. The 80s were full of really crappy sitcoms. Now we've got even crappier reality shows, yes, but we've also got things like Lost that are on a creative level that would hardly have been allowed in TV twenty years ago.

So, the way I look at it, we've got lots more crap, but we also have higher quality stuff. Plus, we've got specialty shows that are only of interest to a certain audience, but are very interesting to that audience. Some people would rather watch nothing but the discovery channel, the learning channel and the national geographic channel. To them, the proliferation of channels is great. Or think about any other set of special interests: for example there are 4 or 5 channels of just cartoons and kids' shows. When I was a kid, I just about would have killed for cartoons 24/7!

Besides, each form of entertainment has its own unique market forces and economics. The issue with electronic books and pirating is not the same as songs and pirating, or TV and the vast expansion of channels. Books in particular have always been something of an odd product, and any person who is knowledgeable and experienced about publishing will tell you that the publishing industry just doesn't work like any other. It works in many counter-intuitive ways, and many business practices that work elsewhere just don't carry over.

[Khazarkhum]

I'm not too keen on listening to the predictions of someone with an expensive device to sell.

And let's face it--Bezos is pushing this because of Kindle. Do you think he'd be as adamant if it were being promoted by Yahoo?

[RG570]

I would be a hell of a lot more concerned with the question of people actually reading at all than the question of how they're going to read it. And comparing it to music doesn't work. The tone of this conversation also assumes that music has somehow changed, when it hasn't, really (other than becoming crappier and increasingly less imaginative). So-called "piracy" has shown to increase record sales. No pop star is declaring bankruptcy because people "pirated" their music. As for the smell of ink and paper, I find both offensive.

[arodriguez]

i have had teh idea for sometime, and i have read elsewhere that others predict, the next step for books will be interactive multimedia.

Wi-fi, hand held book devices (roughly the size of a modest paperback) that simulate page turning. Files are downloaded with prerecorded music tracks and sound effects, digital content like short animated movies or website links to streaming content, and extras like a dvd would have..author commentary and such.

will that happen? yes. but file protection is getting better and better.

will books go away? no.
Why? there are people who still like black and white movies, own zenith televisions from 1980, hunt for animals even though the supermarket is around the corner, wear bellbottoms, yada yada. people don't liek change. Plenty of people will refuse to do the electronic books. Other peole will refuse to sit at the desk and read off the pc. People who like to get away from electronics and go on vacation like to curl up next to the fire and read a good novel.
All in all, its a medium that we can all welcome because its one other way to reach our reader.i don't think we should fear change.

[NicoleMD]

Wi-fi, hand held book devices (roughly the size of a modest paperback) that simulate page turning.

Oh! And make a little mister at the top that sprays out book smell!

Nicole

[dmytryp]

There are two reasons why ereaders haven't caught up till now and you don't see a massive investments by the big guys in this area.

1. Technological -- you need a reader that would be durable and compact enough to comfortably carry with you. On the other hand it needs to have a large enough screen to comfortably read. These technological problems can be solved and, imo, would be solved if there was enough of a economical drive.

2. This is the main problem, imo -- economical. Let's say you can produce a reader cheap enough to sell for 50$ (I have no idea when this would happen and you need huge quantities to get the price so low, but hey -- hypotetically speaking). Let's also assume you sell an e-book for 2$ less than a print book (don't jump on me here -- this is only hypotethical). This would mean, you need to buy 25 books only to cover the price of the reader. What about other members of the family (not everyone can read from the same reader at the same time)? Let's say for a family of four, you buy three readers -- you need 75 books to cover the cost. How many people, you know, buy 75 books in say three years (since no matter what, the readers would have a life span)? Remember, people around here don't represent the general public that buys a lot less books.
Another economic problem is the piracy. The producers of the readers would be able to lower the prices only if they expect to get a return from the books themselves. But as you say, people would download for free and the eReader producers would get nothing. So this is a bit of a catch 22.


Just my 2c on the issue

[Khazarkhum]

I dunno. They've been predicting this for years, just like flying cars and lots of other technological marvels.

And BTW--it's Bezos. Has Amazon ever shown a profit?

[Garpy]

From what I've read up about ereaders, the main hurdle to their being taken up by anything other than early adopters thus far is that they're just for reading books. There's a body of market research that suggests adding one must-have function to it, would be the tipping point needed. This Kindle device may or may not have cracked it, with...if I'm reading this correctly...an always on, internet connection linking the device to Amazon, Wikipedia a list of online newspapers and blogs - for no additional charge. I could imagine, if that's really what they're offering, it wouldn't be that hard to sweeten the deal for potential customers, with access to a few more portals.

For those of you convinced the eBooks read on eReaders will never happen...let me draw your attention to the audio book industry. For years it has languished at the back of bookstores as very much an afterthought industry, selling books on cassettes and cds and generating a trickle of income. Since the iPod became the must have handheld gadget of the last few years, there's been something of a rennaissance for audio books. Until then, I imagine there were many, many people who'd never in a million years buy into the idea of listening to a book, but now will happily digest Harry Potter or Tom Clancy on their iPod riding the tube/train/bus to work. The audiobook business is really picking up...and I wouldn't mind venturing a prediction that a generation from now, more books will be heard than read.

Anyway, I digress...

Here's one more nail in the coffin for print and paper books. The economics and ethics of cutting trees down to pulp for paper to print books. The subsequent shipping of a relatively heavy, bulky product from warehouses to shops. The global economic model is drifting away from the notion of print 'n' paper products sold from bricks 'n' mortar shops...out of neccessity more than anything else. And one medium, more than any other is perfectly suited for fast transmission, and that's text. Forces far greater than our humble preference for the smell of glue and the rustle of pages, will shape our industry.

The mass-market lemmings out there...the ditto-heads who mindlessly follow the herd, who only buy books at christmas and on their way to their once-a-year vaction, have no loyalty whatsoever to print, are easily wowed by shiny metal and plastic things that they can hold in their hand and that go bleep when you turn them on. As a writer looking for a career that's going to keep me fed and warm for another 30-40 years...I've got to seriously consider them as my future audience, and shiny, bleepy eReaders the method by which they'll consume the product that I make.

[arodriguez]

i imagine it would cost more than 100 dollars actually. Most likely, it would include 25-30 books, a 210 dollar value! (sarcasm)

[arodriguez]

in the least, maybe you wont make money from your books, but you will be famous!

[dmytryp]

Here's one more nail in the coffin for print and paper books. The economics and ethics of cutting trees down to pulp for paper to print books. The subsequent shipping of a relatively heavy, bulky product from warehouses to shops. The global economic model is drifting away from the notion of print 'n' paper products sold from bricks 'n' mortar shops...out of neccessity more than anything else. And one medium, more than any other is perfectly suited for fast transmission, and that's text. Forces far greater than our humble preference for the smell of glue and the rustle of pages, will shape our industry.



On this point I disagree. First -- much of the paper is recycled.
Second -- countries like Finland (I bet there are more, I just know for certain about Finland) pretty much perfected fast growing tree patches for selling wood.
Third -- if anything, the industy is going to go to the digital print format (something like POD at the moment). Same as with the photo printing industry at the moment -- you go into the store, you choose a book, or select several stories for an antology, add a dedication page if this is for a gift, go away for an hour, come back and collect your shiny new book -- no shipping costs, no wharehouses no nothing.

[Garpy]

You're saying that's how the majority of books would be purchased in the future? Seriously?

[seun]

The audiobook business is really picking up...and I wouldn't mind venturing a prediction that a generation from now, more books will be heard than read.


I can support that. Here at work, we get roughly 100 new titles every month on CD and cassette. OK, there's obviously the market for the people with sight problems but they don't account for all the people who check the spoken word books out.

[dmytryp]

You're saying that's how the majority of books would be purchased in the future? Seriously?

Why not? You print one copy and put it on a shelf, allowing people to browse. The rest you print in store. Look at the photo industry. From developing film and printing photoes, then buying an album it changed to creating an album you want on the spot (or via Internet) and then printing it in store.
The biggest problem with digital printing today is the price. The balancing point is about couple of thousands copies. Below that it's cheaper to go with digital. Above that -- traditional offset is cheaper. So, the moment it is cheap enough to print a hundred thousand copies through digital printing than with offset, the traditional print would slowly die. Plus, with digital printing you have the advantage of custom made things -- you can change each book to the person's request. Dedications, different covers whatever.

[Simple Living]

A local tv station is taking a poll on how much people read. Here are the results so far.
How often do you read for fun?

I read every day... 46%
I read at least once a week... 20%
I just read at the cabin/chalet... 7%
It's books on tape for me... 2%
This poll had too much reading for me... 25%

[Wraith]

Nice poll, Simple! Doesn't look so grim after all.

I don't think the publishing industry will change so much either. There's a practical side to books that technology will probably never have. Technology will always have its crashes, it will never be as simple to handle and reliable as an innocent paper object with text on it (:D wow, what a definition). We depend on technology for things that we couldn't have in the past, but imo books are not likely to be completely replaced anytime soon. Most people need a break from the screen and artificial feel of computers/e-readers/whatever, and they'll never invent something just as comfortable. As someone else said, people's attitude to books is quite different from their attitude to music, just as books and music are altogether different. JMHO.

And even if cars start to fly and little flexible-screen e-readers take over the world, authors will still get the money for all the reasons people gave: that books don't usually stir a "hype", that readers will still want quality and will learn to stay out from slush-pile-sites, and that books will still need professional editing and formatting. I don't think it will make authors' life much easier, though, as the 'filter' of the publishing industry will still be needed. And authors publishing their not-quite-ready works online, well, it's a great way to diminish slushpiles and for the authors to get feedback and improve, and it's happening now. I don't see many scenarios in which good stuff will end up with those.

Of course, I'm an optimist. Apart from the belief that the world is spiraling to its general doom. (But books will survive. I'll take my books with me to the otherworld.)

:D

[D.L.Steele]

I can support that. Here at work, we get roughly 100 new titles every month on CD and cassette. OK, there's obviously the market for the people with sight problems but they don't account for all the people who check the spoken word books out.

I had never listened to an audio book until about a year ago. I live in CA and I used to have a commute that was minimally an hour and a half, and sometimes a lot more.

I was surprised that I actually liked listening to audio books on my way to work. It was a great way to not stress about being surrounded by a sea of morons. Reading books will always be my preferred method, but I think there is a big market for audio books.

[arodriguez]

lol, smackdown.

[windyrdg]

I agree that ebooks may eventually become a usable format. (I don't think it's gotten there yet.)

I read an article about ebooks in China. They may have a larger customer base, but a lot of China is poor and illiterate. The most popular story has been downloaded several million times. If the author got some royalty on that, the payback might not be too bad.

Ultimately, I think the provider is going to still be important. If you go to say, a Random House site and download a book, you'll have a reasonable assurance it's of decent quality. If you go to Funky Books. com, you have no idea what you'll get.

We see that now with POD. Yeah, by gum, I got me a book, terrible writing, typos and all. Who wants them?

[spacejock2]

Surprisingly, I'm ambivalent about a digital future. It will level the playing somewhat field for newbie authors.

I can't see that. Big names will continue to be big, and most unknown newbie authors will continue to be unknown apart from the odd breakout nobody saw coming. (And for the record, I regard myself as an unknown newbie.)

How many film makers got their break after publishing something on youtube. And of the rest, how many have made a name for themselves? As for music, I know there was a UK singer who got into the top ten on the strength of sales to her Myspace fans, but I can't remember her name.

There's a vast army of people churning out content, but the cream always rises to the top, whatever the product or medium.

[wayndom]

Fortunately, your scenario came with a point with which I can strongly disagree: The music business isn't analogous to text publishing.

Music is passively received. People use it as background noise while driving, working, whatever. Rarely does it command one's attention, as reading fiction does.

E-publishing has inherent difficulties, not the least of which being that most people don't like to read from an electronic screen for very long. Then there's the expense and fragility of e-book reading devices. You can't shove one in your back pocket and only pull it out because it's too uncomfortable to sit on.

I can easily imagine a near future in which no one buys CD's, tapes or vinyl, but I can't imagine one in which most readers read from an LCD screen. There's something about books themselves that people like. I think it's more likely that future generations will be functionally illiterate than that they switch from paper to e-whatever. Of course, if they're illiterate, that's not good news for writers, but that's up to society (whether we're serious about educating kids or not -- currently, we're not, but that could change, too).

I suspect that if book sales are dropping, it's because my generation (boomers) are getting old. We're still the biggest demographic bulge (until we die off) and we're the most literate generation in American history. But a smaller generation of readers doesn't necessarily mean a lower percentage of that generation reads.

I'm appalled at the merging of publishing houses (and other corporations), but I don't think it's because of fewer readers, but because of a failure to enforce (and recognize the importance of) anti-trust laws. Hopefully, that too could change (though not in the immediate future).

In short, I'm more worried about the general trend toward monopoly capitalism than I am about any one market.

[wayndom]

I dunno. They've been predicting this for years, just like flying cars and lots of other technological marvels.


Which reminds me -- WHERE'S MY JET-PACK???

[Garpy]

Fortunately, your scenario came with a point with which I can strongly disagree: The music business isn't analogous to text publishing.

Music is passively received. People use it as background noise while driving, working, whatever. Rarely does it command one's attention, as reading fiction does.

E-publishing has inherent difficulties, not the least of which being that most people don't like to read from an electronic screen for very long. Then there's the expense and fragility of e-book reading devices. You can't shove one in your back pocket and only pull it out because it's too uncomfortable to sit on.

I can easily imagine a near future in which no one buys CD's, tapes or vinyl, but I can't imagine one in which most readers read from an LCD screen. There's something about books themselves that people like. I think it's more likely that future generations will be functionally illiterate than that they switch from paper to e-whatever. Of course, if they're illiterate, that's not good news for writers, but that's up to society (whether we're serious about educating kids or not -- currently, we're not, but that could change, too).

I suspect that if book sales are dropping, it's because my generation (boomers) are getting old. We're still the biggest demographic bulge (until we die off) and we're the most literate generation in American history. But a smaller generation of readers doesn't necessarily mean a lower percentage of that generation reads.

I'm appalled at the merging of publishing houses (and other corporations), but I don't think it's because of fewer readers, but because of a failure to enforce (and recognize the importance of) anti-trust laws. Hopefully, that too could change (though not in the immediate future).

In short, I'm more worried about the general trend toward monopoly capitalism than I am about any one market.

1. I've never managed to fit a massmarket paperback in my back pocket. Not ever. When I'm travelling, a book usually goes in my laptop bag/shoulde bag....like most other people I suspect.

2. I'm pretty sure I mentioned that people don't like reading off traditional screen technology because of the eye-fatigue factor. I then went on to say this particular hurdle has been jumped with the development of e-ink. Really, you need to see that for yourself. It's astounding.

3. Demographics are changing. The older market of book-lovers is being whittled down by nature. The younger market used to reading on screens and holding tech stuff in their hands is growing. Really...if you don't think the traditional book industry is already on its way to a big change, I'm not sure what else I can say.

4. Even though I hear a compelling argument that book readers love the smell/feel of print and glue, the global economic imperative to 'green-up' every facet of our lives will eventually make the heavy old book appear as unacceptable as a gas guzzling SUV - for no other reason that of all the entertainment mediums it is the easiest to transmit digitally....and therefore (in the eyes of non-print fetishists) the question would be raised 'why the hell are big dirty trucks transporting these things along our motorways?'

nb: for the record, I would dearly like the publishing industry to stay like it is right now. I'm one of the lucky ones in print...therefore I have a vested interest in things not changing.

[Torgo]

We don't know what publishing businesses (books, music, movies, games) are going to look like ten years from now. The likelihood is that they're going to need to change their business model because the digital genie is out of the bottle, but I don't know what to. It's probably going to be a mess for a while until something emerges.

Bookwise, I think we have a while longer. Amazon's Kindle seems like it is OK to read from, but it's also aesthetically unpleasing, eats batteries, and requires a subscription (WTF?!). It's not the ebook Ipod.

[ACEnders]

I, personally, do not like electronic books. Never read one, likely never will. I have to have the book in front of me, the smell of the paper, the sound of the pages turning. And I assume I'm not alone, given how many paper-and-glue books that are published each year.

I so agree! Who gets snuggled up in front of the fire place on a cold night to read a laptop? What woman draws a hot bath and relaxes with her Iphone to read a good book? No one.

There's this point that keeps getting made in the article about how the younger generations do everything on screen. Well, they do certain things on screen (like check emails quickly or skim through documents) but whenever anyone in my office has to actually sit down and read something, they print it out.

I agree with this also. At work, we waste so much paper! Everything electronic, yet when we want to read anything...and remember this isn't even a good book, this is boring work, we print it out. I like to have it in my hands. I like to be able to highlight and mark it up. (not mynovels, but you get my drift)