Less than 2% of manuscripts published.

[scarletpeaches]

Originally Posted by bearilou

Perfect description.

Thanks.

How was I able to so answer?

I was an idiot with Golden Word syndrome.

Originally Posted by bearilou

And your avatar makes my heart flutter. I can't wait for the Solomon Kane movie. It may suck rocks but James Purefoy makes anything look good.

He does things to me not appropriate to be mentioned in this thread.

[scarletpeaches]

Originally Posted by mscelina

It's not hyperbole. Slush piles are horrifying, even for small presses.

This reassures me that I've taken huge strides in my writing in even the past year. I just cling to Medi's reminder in another thread that if my query was correctly spelled and hell, just made sense, I was already ahead of the game.

[bearilou]

Originally Posted by scarletpeaches

He does things to me not appropriate to be mentioned in this thread.

*nodnodnod* I agree.

[blacbird]

Originally Posted by katiemac

If you have a good book, you have a great shot.

Problem being that the only way you know "if you have a good book" is if it gets accepted for publication. If it doesn't, it's worthless crap.

caw

[Scribhneoir]

Originally Posted by Mara

Originally, I assumed it was hyperbole. The more I read from slush pile cleaners, the more I'm leaning toward taking it more literally. I still can't wrap my mind around someone sending a manuscript without even bothering to have someone check the first paragraph for serious spelling and grammatical errors.

Another thing Uncle Jim says is that if you want to get an idea of what a slush pile is like, go to fanfiction.net, pick a category and start reading. That'll soon prove it's not hyperbole to say that two pages of grammatical English prose puts you in the top 10%.

[maestrowork]

Originally Posted by blacbird

Problem being that the only way you know "if you have a good book" is if it gets accepted for publication. If it doesn't, it's worthless crap.

caw

Not necessarily "worthless crap" -- a falling tree still makes a sound even when no one is around. But a lot of what is considered "good" or "bad" is by third-party judgment. Meaning, the readers'. Like my friend Kathy Joosten said, "What is art if no one ever sees it?" I mean, Van Gogh's paintings remain the same whether he was alive or long after he was dead. It's only the perception of people changed.

[maestrowork]

Originally Posted by Scribhneoir

Another thing Uncle Jim says is that if you want to get an idea of what a slush pile is like, go to fanfiction.net, pick a category and start reading. That'll soon prove it's not hyperbole to say that two pages of grammatical English prose puts you in the top 10%.

The problem is, many of those writers believe their works belong in the top 5% instead of the slush. When they're "corrected," they lash out and believe the industry is broken.

They are JEALOUS OF MY GENIUS!!!!

[blacbird]

Originally Posted by maestrowork

Like my friend Kathy Joosten said, "What is art if no one ever sees it?"

Pretty much my point.

caw

[Medievalist]

Originally Posted by scarletpeaches

This reassures me that I've taken huge strides in my writing in even the past year. I just cling to Medi's reminder in another thread that if my query was correctly spelled and hell, just made sense, I was already ahead of the game.

You totally are.

There's a reason that no one is made to read slush even half time.

It's soul-destroying because so much of it really doesn't even approach being readable.

You keep going, hoping that today will be one of the days that you find, out of a stack that's ten inches or more thick, one or two that merit reading beyond the first couple of pages (or more often, paragraphs).

And then--when you FIND something--it's like Christmas morning. It really really is. Makes your week.

You make everybody else drop what they're doing and come read.

[maestrowork]

Originally Posted by blacbird

Pretty much my point.

caw

Not really. She didn't say it'd be "worthless crap." Instead, look at it as "it hasn't found an audience, yet." Or like a cut of grilled steak that hasn't been eaten yet -- it CANNOT be delicious until someone is tasting it; but it's not by definition "worthless crap" either.

[OliviaMagdelene]

Originally Posted by blacbird

Problem being that the only way you know "if you have a good book" is if it gets accepted for publication. If it doesn't, it's worthless crap.

caw

I have to disagree with this. Good books throughout our modern times have been rejected outright and only published until the author is already deceased. Case in point: The Confederacy of Dunces. John Grisham was rejected by every major publishing house. Why? Because he was told [i] there is no readership for legal thrillers/[i], which turned out not to be the case. The author Zane is a multimillionaire solely because publishing houses underestimated the lucrative business of the African-American erotic market. She is now opening doors for writers all over the place.

While it is true that finding good writing may be hard, it is equally true that good writing is rejected solely because the publishing house can not envision an adequate marketing plan for the work in question. If it can't be marketed, then it is not lucrative to take on the project, no matter how good the writing is.

I have gotten my share of rejection letters, enough to make wallpaper out of them. But more often than not, I've received personal rejection letters that have been worth their weight in gold. Not one of them said it was because I lacked talent. It was all based on the story itself and whether they thought it would market well. This is why I send my writing overseas more: good writing is valued for good writing, not whether your marketing team is on the ball.

[scarletpeaches]

I'll pre-empt blaccy's inevitable reply of, "But they were eventually published in the end which proves they were good and thereby gives me an excuse to complain about how crappy my own writing is for the eleventy billionth time."

*sigh*

[Ken]

... when I first started out, statistics like this 2% one used to really depress me and make me feel like quitting as the odds of getting published seemed so incredibly high. So what I did was to quit reading articles that cited stats of the sort. Kind of a lame tactic, but it did prevent me from getting down about my chances of getting pub'd, enabling me to remain upbeat and motivated to write. Nowadays I'm more confident and don't need to hide my head in the sand ... quite as often ;-)

[scarletpeaches]

I'm the opposite, Ken, for the reasons Lisa cited above.

So 2% (or whatever) manuscripts are published? Maybe that's not because they're overly choosy. Maybe it's because only 2% of books are WORTHY of publication.

Therefore...all I have to do is up my game. Make myself 'top 2%'-level good.

[Ken]

... that's a great way to look at it, SP. Back when, it didn't occur to me to see the 2% in that light, and it wouldn't have really helped me any as I wasn't anywhere near being in that bracket. I still don't think I am, but I'm not quite so far off anymore.

[maestrowork]

Logic tells us that:

a) only a small % of manuscripts get published

b) because you're published doesn't mean the book is gold. It may mean it fits the marketing needs and meets a certain publishing standard. Still, it's probably better than at least 90% of what's out there.

c) if you have a good book, you may not get published. But if you persevere, eventually it will be published.

Someone mentioned John Grisham. Don't forget, he did eventually get published by a small press. So even though he didn't get picked up by a big house, he did join that 2% -- because he had a good book. And that get his foot in the door.

What's in the slush, most likely, will never see publication because they're just bad.

But you know what? Write your next book! John Grisham wouldn't have been JOHN GRISHAM if he had stopped at A Time To Kill. He went on to write The Firm, and that was the book that made him a household name.

[JMBlackman]

After reading this thread (almost) in entirety, I feel a little on the fence. I mean, I'm not sure if I'm optimistic or filled with dread. It's almost a mix between the two that may or may not be resulting in sweating. Then, I read this:

Originally Posted by katiemac

What all this means is the real competition is among a much smaller pool of candidates. If you have a good book, you have a great shot.

And I went, yeah, OK. Good book means you got something. *inflates*

Originally Posted by blacbird

Problem being that the only way you know "if you have a good book" is if it gets accepted for publication. If it doesn't, it's worthless crap.

caw

Oh. *deflates*

And then:

Originally Posted by maestrowork

Not really. :) She didn't say it'd be "worthless crap." Instead, look at it as "it hasn't found an audience, yet." Or like a cut of grilled steak that hasn't been eaten yet -- it CANNOT be delicious until someone is tasting it; but it's not by definition "worthless crap" either.

I like steak references. And that makes sense. So...I'm going to go with a state of semi-inflated, versus flaccid. :) Good thread. Cool contributions.

[Ken]

... yep, so important to 'write your next book,' as Maestro states. Sometimes a writer's first one gets pub'd. But more often it's the 2nd or 3rd or 50th that strikes payday.

[The Lonely One]

.

[motormind]

Originally Posted by maestrowork

How about a rollickingly exciting read, written absolutely fabulously, and technically perfect?

Do you consider your own work as such?

Originally Posted by mscelina

Sure. It's college football Saturday and I'm currently going through the submission slushpile arbitrarily booting out manuscripts that didn't follow our submission guidelines.

easy peasy. Doesn't even involve thought.

Whoops, there goes your million dollar break.

In the end it's all a big lottery--not only for writers, but also, and especially, for agents. I regard the agent who recognizes the potential of my manuscript as a very lucky individual. Most people have to be forced to find their happiness.

[JJ Cooper]

We create our own luck through good writing, research and preparation before querying.

Or, becomming a celebrity first.

JJ

[Priene]

Originally Posted by motormind

In the end it's all a big lottery

It's not a lottery. It's not close to a lottery. It's ridiculously, absurdly far from being a lottery.

Do agents pick manuscripts at random from their slush piles and decide to represent them?

Do publishers pick manuscripts at random from their slush piles and decide to represent them?

No? Then it's not a lottery.


The study of statistics takes terrible abuse in threads like this. Say this is a fact:

2% of manuscripts get published

I don't know whether it's true, and I'm not aware of any reliable way of finding out, but let's say it's true.

Here's another fact:

I have written a manuscript

which is true, as it happens.

This

therefore my chance of getting published is 2%

is an inference. One that is only true if manuscripts are chosen for publication at random. Otherwise, I'm unable to estimate what my possibility of publication actually is. It's unknowable.

For most MSs, the probability of publication is actually effectively zero, because their quality is so low no publisher will consider them. A few MSs will be so good they're highly likely to be published. There's probably some that could get picked up on a good day but won't on a bad day, but there probably aren't many of these at all.

All you can do is keep improving your writing, and hope feedback from beta readers, writers and agent provides a reasonable estimate of your progress.

[motormind]

Originally Posted by Priene

It's not a lottery. It's not close to a lottery. It's ridiculously, absurdly far from being a lottery.

Do agents pick manuscripts at random from their slush piles and decide to represent them?

No, but whether they pick the "right" manuscript depends heavily on the agent's mood, taste and whether he had a good night's sleep.

[JJ Cooper]

Originally Posted by motormind

No, but whether they pick the "right" manuscript depends heavily on the agent's mood, taste and whether he had a good night's sleep.

No. Legitimate agents are professionals who want to make a living. They select an MS on what they can sell (of course).

[motormind]

Originally Posted by JJ Cooper

No. Legitimate agents are professionals who want to make a living. They select an MS on what they can sell (of course).

They are also still human beings.