Less than 2% of manuscripts published.

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Selah March

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As far as I can tell, the only place luck comes into play is the market itself.

Example (a true story): An acquaintance spent a year writing, rewriting, revising and polishing the best damned vampire YA novel she could produce. Her multiple crit partners went over it with a fine-toothed comb. Her eyes bled from proofreading. Her query and synopsis shone like the top of the Chrysler building.

A month after she snagged an agent's interest, Twilight dropped, and suddenly every editor was looking for the next YA vampire novel to cash in on the trend. Within a year, the YA shelves were teeming with them -- sparkly knock-offs and a few non-derivative works, my acquaintance's among them.

Her lucky day? Would her book have sold as easily if Stephenie Myers hadn't opened the door? Perhaps not. Some fortunate coming-together of circumstance was at play there, but we'd like to think her hard work paid off and she would've sold it anyway.

On the other hand, have you read a few of those knock-offs? Blech. Clearly, some folks spent a lot less time and effort on their books than did my friend. They DEFINITELY got lucky. (Which isn't to say those authors weren't careful about grammar, spelling, formatting and following publisher guidelines.)

Another example: My very best friend is a multiple award-winning YA author. At the end of her last contract, she found herself with an unsold manuscript that every editor deemed, "Wonderful, but too dark for the current market." (It's based on the opera "Carmen.")

She was getting rejections on partial subs that asked her to send the book when she finally got it published, because the editor loved the story and wanted to read the rest of it, but couldn't sell it to her current board. This happened more than once.

The happy ending to the story: She changed agents and continued to sub it till she found an editor willing to stand behind the manuscript. It's now on St. Martin's schedule for fall of 2010.

My point? Hard work is its own luck and without it, your chances plummet. But the market is a fickle, unpredictable thing, and circumstances do come into play. Good, well-written books get overlooked (or rejected with "this is wonderful, but I can't sell it") -- sometimes for years -- because editors see no place for them in the current market. Lesser books get published because they happened to be submitted at the right time, to the right place.

Which doesn't negate the original point of the thread. Do the work, give it all you've got every time, and be ready when that "lucky" break comes around.
 

ChristineR

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There's one think I never understood about these sorts of figures. I can easily believe that, say, less than 2% of the manuscripts that cross the acquisitions desk at Del Ray are going to be accepted by Del Ray. After all, Del Ray can only print so many books. But won't most of those manuscripts go onto other agents, other publishers? If your chance of being picked up at any particular venue is 1%, and you submit to 100 venues, your chances rise to about 64%. Submit to 200 venues and it's 87%.

(This requires some math--but if math isn't your thing, then just accept it.)

Of course this is not really how it works. How it really works is that somewhere between ninety and ninety-five percent (according to various agent blogs) is utter garbage and will never be picked up by anyone. I suspect that what is really happening though, is that everything good is being plucked out relatively early in the process, and whatever is left just churns until the author gives up. Hence it's not that 95% is unpublishable--it's that 95% of what hasn't already found a home is unpublishable.

What I have never heard is a good estimate of what percentage is unreadable at the beginning of the process, i.e., the very first time things are submitted and not when work has been sent around to agent after agent who rejects it almost immediately. I believe someone on this site estimated it was 90/10--that is, ninety percent is so bad from the get-go that it will do nothing but make the rounds, but ten percent is good enough so that it will eventually find a home.

So I really wouldn't allow myself to be discouraged by these kind of numbers. If it really is only pure luck, you can increase your luck simply by casting a wide net. But if it's not luck, if it's that some manuscripts are magic and shine out--then the chances appear even lower, because the shiny ones have fewer go rounds in the slush.
 

icerose

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Dang, this thread has been growing fast.

I just wanted to comment on the Lottery thing. It is such a lousy comparison because that would mean every book has a chance. They don't. 90% of all books submitted have 0% chance because they are simply unpublishable. They aren't even readable.

The lottery thing is only accurate if you realize you control the first 5 numbers. The sixth is talent and the seventh is the wild card that rests with the agent/editor.

Of those five numbers are story telling, technical ability, character, plot, pacing. All of those can be learned. All of those must be mastered.

From the rejections I've recieved and the work I've gained as a script writer, I would guess I'm somewhere in the 5% group. It's up to me to put my work at the top. Not the editors, not the agents. My job.
 

Wayne K

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The way I've learned to look at things is "If you can do it, I can do it" and in the next breath I'll tell you "If I can do it, you can do it"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bv2ChXPjyNg

I'm sure people told Eminem that he wouldn't go over real big in Detroit rap clubs.
 
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The way I've learned to look at things is "If you can do it, I can do it" and in the next breath I'll tell you "If I can do it, you can do it"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bv2ChXPjyNg

I'm sure people told Eminem that he wouldn't go over real big in Detroit rap clubs.
People only tell me what I do is easy to absolve themselves of all responsibility for working on their own lives. "It's all right for you, you only do it because it's easy for you. You were born that way." :rolleyes: Oh, I was born literate and articulate, was I?

But I believe if what I did was easy everyone would do it.

And to paraphrase JFK, I don't do it 'cause it's easy; I do it 'cause it's hard.
 

Wayne K

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(You better lose yourself in the music, the moment
You own it, you better never let it go
You only get one shot, do not miss your chance to blow
This opportunity comes once in a lifetime yo)

You can do anything you set your mind to, man
 

Wayne K

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No more games, Imma change what you call rage
Tear this motherfuckin roof off like two dogs caged
I was playin in the beginning, the mood all changed
I've been chewed up and spit out and booed off stage
But I kept rhymin and stepped right in the next cypher
Best believe somebody's payin the pied piper
All the pain inside amplified by the
fact that I can't get by with my nine to
five and I can't provide the right type of
life for my family, cause man, these God damn
food stamps don't buy diapers, and there's no movie
There's no Mekhi Phifer, this is my life
And these times are so hard, and it's gettin even harder
Tryin to feed and water my seed plus, teeter-totter
Caught up between bein a father and a pre-madonna
Baby momma drama screamin on her too much for me to wanna
stay in one spot, another day of monotony
has gotten me to the point, I'm like a snail I've got
to formulate a plot, or end up in jail or shot
Success is my only motherfuckin option, failure's not
Mom I love you but this trailer's got to go
I cannot grow old in Salem's Lot
So here I go it's my shot, feet fail me not
This may be the only opportunity that I got
 

Wayne K

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Think about Eminem for a second. 5'7" 150 pounds WHITE and said "I'm going to go down to that rap club and show them what's what."

100 million dollars I'm sure he thinks about the people who said 'Get the F out of here" back then.
 

maestrowork

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Remember, even the "overnight" success doesn't take overnight. Dan Brown had published four books (all mid-list) already before DVC sent him to the stratosphere. Grisham published with a small press. Clancy had to depend on the military press to get Hunt for the Red October published (because no one else wanted it). King struggled for a long time, so did Rowling. Someone like Stephanie Meyers still worked her ass off, despite what you think about her "luck." Anyone who thinks they're just going to walk in and get the prize, unable to do the hard work, is doomed to fail.
 
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Good God. I've seen it all. Eminem has been tossed into the ring in a conversation about business.

I have such a strange taste in my mouth.
It makes a strange kinda sense.

He had balls. And he didn't listen to anyone who said he had a less than 2% chance of making it.

Wayne - I can't for the life of me remember the track he did with 50 Cent on the Encore extra disc...Help me out hyuh!
 
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Never mind, I got it. I always remember the answer after I ask the question.

"Never Enough".
 

motormind

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Are you implying my agent was in a good mood, is thriller-orientated in her choice of works, and slept well the night before she read my book?

Could very well be, yes.

So, nothing to do with the quality of my query or MS?

Writing a good query or a good manuscript is much like obtaining a lottery ticket. You will never be able to win without it, but buying one is no guarantee of winning in itself. Life is one big string of coincidences like that.
 
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That's an insult to the work JJ put in to his book.

Lottery = chance.
Publication = WORK.
 

maestrowork

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Could very well be, yes.



Writing a good query or a good manuscript is much like obtaining a lottery ticket. You will never be able to win without it, but buying one is no guarantee of winning in itself. Life is one big string of coincidences like that.

Please. JJ is published because he worked hard, did his research, done his job, perfected his queries, and targeted the right people. But the work itself is still the final verdict -- without a good book, he would have gone nowhere.

Calling all that "lottery" is an insult. There is no guarantee in life, but it doesn't mean it's just a crapshoot, which a "lottery" is. Surely, you know what "lottery" means, don't you?

Seriously, get published first before you insult, like a know-it-all, those who've already done it.
 

mscelina

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Man, am I tired of hearing the lottery analogy. Getting published is not completely random and people who think that it is obviously doesn't have much of a concept of how much work is involved in getting there.

I absolutely by God have worked myself to a skeleton to get as far as I have--which isn't far-- and if I proceed further I'll work harder still. Fortunately, while I do so, I'll be stepping all over queries sent by writers who think if they just get the right scratch-off with an agent they'll find the path to fame and fortune.

Sorry about the irritablity factor. I worked 20 hours yesterday, went to bed at 6 am and got started again at 8:30. I don't have time for bullshit in my career, and that is what the whole lottery analogy is--a catchphrase that's turned into an urban legend.
 
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ChaosTitan

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That's an insult to the work JJ put in to his book.

Lottery = chance.
Publication = WORK.

Quite frankly, it's an insult to all of us who've put in the work, signed with an agent, and gotten a publishing contract.

But if looking at getting published as a lottery makes some folks feel better about their chances, who am I to argue? The rest of us know better.
 
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