Less than 2% of manuscripts published.

motormind said:

Writing a good query or a good manuscript is much like obtaining a lottery ticket. You will never be able to win without it, but buying one is no guarantee of winning in itself. Life is one big string of coincidences like that.

Click to expand...

And you would know this, exactly how?

Do you have a published trade novel?

An agent?

Do you have any actual publishing credentials at all?

Or do you just post on message boards?

Does it surprise you that only the unpublished are griping about how much of a "lottery" this publishing business is? Not to mention they try to convince those who have signed and published that they are right, and we're wrong!

Hmmm... let's see.. How many AWers have been published. Quite a lot.

How many have actually won the lottery? Let's have a show of hands.

I think we should all get a group and buy the Powerball or Mega Million! We must have really good odds.

mscelina said:

Man, am I tired of hearing the lottery analogy. Getting published is not completely random and people who think that it is obviously doesn't have much of a concept of how much work is involved in getting there. Blah blah blah more words and whining...

Click to expand...

*cough* Your reps might make you feel less irritable. *cough*

motormind said:

They are also still human beings.

Click to expand...

Ah yes, but no matter what kind of day they've had, or what mood they're in, they still reject the slush and sign what they both like and think will sell. Approx 2% of what they get sent if that stat is right ( and is probably close to that) Just because they have a headache doesn't mean they think crap is gold or the other way round.

However, if they just like it - they may take it to the 'meeting'. But if they don't think they can sell it, they won't take it on.

scarletpeaches said:

*cough* Your reps might make you feel less irritable. *cough*

Click to expand...

I was NOT whining. I was expounding.

*runs off to check her reps*

Here's the way I see it. A lot of published books aren't very good. I don't know what percentage, I don't read new authors. Even if I don't have the skills to be better than them yet, (And I believe I do) then I will.

I listen, I learn well and I ask questions.

Be teachable. I am that.

After losing a lot of opportunities to lack of confidence, I can say that it's self defeating. I'd rather believe in myself. People have told me that my writing has gotten better. That means if I keep up with the work--Uncle Jim's thread one more time would be a nice refresher. (I'm not reading the chess book again, it's murder once) Then soon I'll be better than this.

Eventually, if I believe in myself, I'll get there.

If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. I've been wrong before. But if you ask me if I think I have the stuff to get published. I'm going to give you an immodest response. Hell yes.

It's immodest but not disrespectful. I believe in myself. After a lifetime of self loathing it's what I need to get the fire going. Plus, now I have to prove it.

IdiotsRUs said:

Ah yes, but no matter what kind of day they've had, or what mood they're in, they still reject the slush and sign what they both like and think will sell. Approx 2% of what they get sent if that stat is right ( and is probably close to that) Just because they have a headache doesn't mean they think crap is gold or the other way round.

Click to expand...

And they're professionals. No matter how crappy a day you've had, you do your job the best you can because you are a professional.

Motormind not only manages to insult published authors on this board, but also the professional agents and editors.

I wish her luck in her publishing endeavors.

maestrowork said:

Does it surprise you that only the unpublished are griping about how much of a "lottery" this publishing business is? Not to mention they try to convince those who have signed and published that they are right, and we're wrong!

Hmmm... let's see.. How many AWers have been published. Quite a lot.

How many have actually won the lottery? Let's have a show of hands.

I think we should all get a group and buy the Powerball or Mega Million! We must have really good odds.

Click to expand...

There's a reason for that, Ray. Its simple human nature. Maybe a case of sour grapes. But I feel I'm hard-working, I feel I've put a lot of time and effort into my story. Yet the rejections pile up. What am I to think but that its the luck of the draw?

Well, I do know what to think. That my writing sucks. But I haven't reached that point of acceptance yet.

motormind said:

Writing a good query or a good manuscript is much like obtaining a lottery ticket. You will never be able to win without it, but buying one is no guarantee of winning in itself. Life is one big string of coincidences like that.

Click to expand...

You want guarantees, jump off a 2000 foot cliff onto sharp rocks and I can guarantee it'll kill you.

There's no such thing as a guarantee to success.

IT IS NOTHING LIKE A LOTTERY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

The more people who say it's like a lottery the more I wonder is it that they know shit about publishing or shit about lotteries? I really can't tell which.

A lottery is 100% chance. A machine rolls around a bunch of balls and randomly selects 7 of them. In order to hit the jackpot you have to guess ahead of time those 7 numbers in that precise order they pop out. Precise order. You can't just have those seven numbers on a paper, they have to be in the right order. Also there is nothing that can improve your chances other than buying a whole bunch of tickets. This all takes zero effort. It takes money, but no effort.

There is nothing random about publishing.

First of all at least 90% of all submission should have been trashed before ever going out into the world. They have 0 chance. That is NOTHING like a lottery. All tickets have equal chance in a lottery. All submissions do not.

In order for a book to have a "winning" chance, it must have a good story, good characters, good plot, good pacing, good writing, and someone out there must love it enough to go to bat for it. The love is something you do not control. That's your wildcard.

If you have your story, characters, plot, pacing, and writing all in a row, it's a matter of time and market strength before it gets published. Sometimes it'll be a second book published. Maybe it isn't remarkable enough to be a first.

So please, tell me what sort of fucked up contorted logic does this equal a lottery? Because no matter how hard I squint I don't see it.

Wayne K said:

...if you ask me if I think I have the stuff to get published. I'm going to give you an immodest response. Hell yes.

It's immodest but not disrespectful. I believe in myself. After a lifetime of self loathing it's what I need to get the fire going. Plus, now I have to prove it.

Click to expand...

I was always taught that 'modest' means you recognise your own limitations.

Well fine, I can do that.

But recognising my own limitations doesn't stop me from recognising my own strengths too.

Ed, I had over 60 rejections and NEVER -- I really mean NEVER -- did I think "it's only a luck of the draw" and that hard work wouldn't pay off. I forged on. And it did pay off.

If you really believe in your talent and hard work, then keep going. All you need is one. Many people -- including the really good writers -- fail because they quit way too soon. Not because they're not good writers, but they don't have what it takes, which is perseverance.

Comparing that to lottery really is an insult, because no matter how much a person perseveres, "lottery" is still a game of chance. Pure chance. Nothing more.

Publishing is nothing like that at all.

I have just realized I really shouldn't post when I'm sick. I lose all tolerance and am unable to temper my words.

maestrowork said:

If you really believe in your talent...

Click to expand...

I'm beginning to really question this.

maestrowork said:

Does it surprise you that only the unpublished are griping about how much of a "lottery" this publishing business is? Not to mention they try to convince those who have signed and published that they are right, and we're wrong!

Hmmm... let's see.. How many AWers have been published. Quite a lot.

How many have actually won the lottery? Let's have a show of hands.

I think we should all get a group and buy the Powerball or Mega Million! We must have really good odds.

Click to expand...

This is why I stay here. I follow a lot of you guys. You're all very generous with your time and experience. You, you're great Ray. Thank you.

maestrowork said:

Ed, I had over 60 rejections and NEVER -- I really mean NEVER -- did I think "it's only a luck of the draw" and that hard work wouldn't pay off. I forged on. And it did pay off.

If you really believe in your talent and hard work, then keep going. All you need is one.

Click to expand...

Plus, as Wayne told me by PM - but it deserves to be heard in public - those in the business can sniff out lack of confidence at 50 paces.

Don't talk yourself up (your writing should do that for you) but don't talk yourself down either (plenty of others out there willing to do that).

Well, whatever...give it a few years, y'all can suck my Booker.

Shadow_Ferret said:

I'm beginning to really question this.

Click to expand...

Never do that. You may, or you may not, have talent, but if you don't even believe in yourself, how are you going to convince others to do so?

ETA: we all have doubts sometimes. Maybe even for a long stretch of time. Heck, sometimes I just wanted to pack up and leave and I have a book published already. But deep down, you do know if it's something you want. And you go for it no matter what. That's what separates the men from the boys. As Randy Pausch said, the brick walls are there to separate those who really want it and the rest.

Shadow_Ferret said:

I'm beginning to really question this.

Click to expand...

I've betaed your work. You have absolutely no reason to think this way about yourself. You're good. Accept it. And then keep going.

scarletpeaches said:

Plus, as Wayne told me by PM - but it deserves to be heard in public - those in the business can sniff out lack of confidence at 50 paces.

Click to expand...

Especially confidence that comes with utter slush-worthy crap. We've seen some of that "you're jealous of my genius" geniuses around here before.

maestrowork said:

Especially confidence that comes with utter slush-worthy crap. We've seen some of that "you're jealous of my genius" geniuses around here before.

Click to expand...

Okay, maybe 'self belief' is a better way of putting it. I like 'confidence' though. I want to reclaim the word from those who think it means "I'm a cocky shit."

Well maybe I am. But you're a jelouse looser.

maestrowork said:

Please. JJ is published because he worked hard, did his research, done his job, perfected his queries, and targeted the right people. But the work itself is still the final verdict -- without a good book, he would have gone nowhere.

Click to expand...

So where did I deny that? You really have a habit of purposefully misinterpreting what I write.

maestrowork said:

Calling all that "lottery" is an insult. There is no guarantee in life, but it doesn't mean it's just a crapshoot, which a "lottery" is. Surely, you know what "lottery" means, don't you?

Click to expand...

In a lottery all you have to do is buy a ticket. With publishing, you need to write a publishable manuscript and a good query. After that, things are out of your control. Saying that writing a good book is enough is a typical single-cause fallacy.

People generally attribute their success to internal factors (like having written a good book) and their failures to external ones. The truth is that most everything in life is heavily influenced by circumstances outside your span of control--starting with where you are born.

The only sure thing is: if you don't do anything, nothing will happen.

maestrowork said:

Seriously, get published first before you insult, like a know-it-all, those who've already done it.

Click to expand...

How do you know I haven't been published? And what does it have to do with this discussion anyway? Moreover: why do you always take everything I say personally?

Shadow_Ferret said:

I'm beginning to really question this.

Click to expand...

I definitely understand the frustration. One of my books was recently rejected. The agent said she really liked it but didn't feel like it would stand out enough in the genre. Basically it wasn't remarkable, it would be a midlister. I'm not really sure how to make it more remarkable so for now it's on the shelf and I'm working on two pieces that are far more daring than I have ever previously ventured. Have you thought perhaps that you're really good but perhaps haven't put out a remarkable piece yet? That's where I'm at.

Interesting. Several people have taken objection to your post, motormind, but you only attribute motives to Ray and call only him out? And he's the one who takes things personally?

Ipso facto.

I hope this thread doesn't get locked. I like where the discussion's going.

(That is to say, Wayne's posts about positive thinking, Eminem and "I'll show you all, you bastids!")

Thread needs a time out. Maybe re-open later.
and thus the thread was re-opened.
-Derek

motormind said:

In a lottery all you have to do is buy a ticket. With publishing, you need to write a publishable manuscript and a good query. After that, things are out of your control. Saying that writing a good book is enough is a typical single-cause fallacy.

Click to expand...

I don't agree with what you're saying at all, unless the hypothetical person who has written a good book has been silly enough to only send it to a few agents, and be unlucky enough that those few agents happen to be in the narrow range the book doesn't appeal to, despite being in the same genre they represent. I have no writing credentials to speak of, so I'll counter your argument with my own experience of life (and as members of the publishing industry live in our world and not a universe of parallel logic, hopefully there will be enough similarities for a sound analogy). Today, I handed in my final university assignment (yipee). My tutor will award it with an overall mark. Her feelings toward it and the overall quality of my work, are substantially within my control.

In order to better my chances at scoring a high mark, I've referred to specialist books, attended a conference, and taken and participated in relevant classes in the lead up to this submission. I've also shown the work to my tutor before hand to get her input. Obviously, were I pitching to an agent who was a stranger this would not be a helpful analogy part, however I have heard of hopeful writers talking to industry members in bars at conferences and discussing their shared genre to lead in to pitching a book, so I suppose this can carry through.

I know at the conference I attended (for design) one consistent piece of advice was meet people in person where possible, and chat with people over drinks. Basic networking and talking to people in the industry you wish to find work in (or are working in already) can help your work be seen if it is good.

There's a whole lot you can potentially do in the lead-up to submitting your work to vastly improve its chances, but of course writing a good book and having a capacity for self-reflection upon your work and running it past other readers and writers will help in developing a book that will appeal to a wide audience. Subjective though people are there are qualities of writing that are just objectively good.

Once I hand something in, I don’t have godly control over the next stage, but I can do a lot to try and raise my work up proper so it’s ready to go into the world and possesses the skill to make new friends.