Thanks for chiming in Torgo. I appreciate your unique perspective, and agree with you that cost is and will be an issue, even for the least complex forms such as novel/GN mixes. But from my own observations, I am seeing a huge increase in the number of books available incorporating these mixed media, both in bookstores and libraries. Currently, buyers are willing to pay, ironically enough given the economy. But as to whether this is because of their relative novelty or not is unknown. It'll be interesting to see whether the trend sustains itself.
Where I think the greatest potential for impact in children's books is with picture books. Indeed, iPhone and iPad apps are indeed in the works (personally know of several developers engaged in this), but this is not where I think the greatest and most enduring impact will be felt. I agree we'll be looking at Leap-Pad like formats. I had earlier predicted/challenged developers to produce content for existing devices such as Wii and PlayStation (lower barrier to entry as most households already own these devices) that engage children in a more active way. In fact, one might consider some available games as children's stories in this respect. That's not exactly what I'm thinking, I would like to see more along these lines. In any case, as with the iPad and smart phones, we're seeing a trending towards all-in-ones. I don't think it'll be ten years before we see wireless connected, always on, pad computers that are capable of delivering hi-res video and audio, function as eReaders and workstations. It's not so hard then to imagine a child with that on his/her lap rather than a book.
I am not advocating for, nor predicting the demise of the traditional book formats we've enjoyed for years, but I do see encroachment of new technologies and methods for content delivery to children. I think this is a good thing. And I think it represents new opportunities for writers, illustrators and digital content developers.
Here are the predictions I made in March. Obviously, only time will bear out whether I'm close or way off base, but I'd like to hear what others have to say.
I'll make some predictions, and we'll see whether or nor they play out in the coming years.
1. Television will become the first digital device of choice for picture book stories, not ereaders. That's because,
2. Portable devices capable of delivering the quality of experience a paper picture book provides are a long ways off from being affordable.
3. First-to-market technologies that enable a child to navigate the story on-screen with a simple inexpensive hand-held device (controller) will set the standard.
4. Adaptation of, or development of apps for, current gaming systems, such as Wii and PlayStation, for picture books will likely be the first generation products.
5. Illustrators and publishers will need to rethink how they go about designing and publishing picture books to be more amenable to the new formats.
6. This will open up a whole new world of possibilities for how authors conceive and write their stories, not restrict them. Writers receptive to these changes will be more successful.