{RESULTS} 11/4/2014: Does the GOP Take the Senate?

If they have more guys like Justin Amash, Raul Labrador, Darrel Issa and Thomas Massie running, I think for sure they take it unless the Democrats can figure out how to run similar candidates of their own, at least in terms of being able to effectively combat more federal expansion into our private lives. I think guys like Joe Lieberman and Dennis Kucinich are great at least in that regard; if the Democrats want a chance they will probably need more candidates like those.

Nope. The folks the Republicans are running don't have the reach.

Democrat (and Independent caucusing wiht them) keep the Senate.

Pfft. I'm totally starting a write-in for my dog. The only federal interference he's interested in involves the mail carrier.

Truman Burrell - you heard of him here first, people...

Well, if I have anything to say about it, their prediction will be wrong about Colorado at least. I will knock on every door I can to try and give Mark Udall an edge.

It'll be close, but not enough.

Or not.

Somebody will win and there's a good chance it won't be the one you voted for.

I think that will come close, but fall short.

The idea that the GOP could prosper by offering up candidates like the ultra conservative and divisive Darryl Issa is a fantasy. These conservatives backed by the tea party and libertarians do quite well in their conservative house districts. But in general, extreme candidates fair poorly in statewide elections.

An interesting wrinkle is the Senate race in Kansas. Kansas is a deep red state that has not sent anyone but a Republican to the Senate since Christ was a corporal.

The idea that the GOP could lose Kansas wasn't even on the radar. But Sen. Pat Roberts is quite unpopular. In red State Kansas that usually wouldn't matter, and although he only garnered 36% support in a recent poll, that 36% led the polls in a three-way race including a Democrat and an Independent.

But then the Democrat dropped out. The polling now shows the independent, Greg Ormon leading Roberts by a substantial margin. The election is still five weeks off and the GOP is pouring everything into support for Roberts. He may well make a comeback but his unpopularity, even among Republicans is making it difficult for him.

This race took a fascinating turn when Kris Kobach, Kansas Secretary of State, tea party favorite and crafter of the "papers please" Arizona immigration law and many of the voter suppression laws across the nation entered the fray.

He refused to let the Democratic candidate take his name off the ballot, claiming the paperwork was filled out incorrectly. It took a unanimous ruling by the Kansas State Supreme Court to force him to allow the Democrat to withdraw.

He then ordered the Democratic Party to put up another candidate. The Dems laughed and said he had no power to order them to do anything, and they had no intention of putting up a candidate – since the only hope of defeating Roberts was to stay on the sidelines.

So Kobach went back to the courts to demand they be forced to do so. That is now under advisement. He really wants a Democrat in the race to improve Roberts chances.

http://news.yahoo.com/lawsuit-could-scramble-kansas-senate-race-again-140205844--election.html

Just one race, to be sure, but if the GOP loses what was assumed to be a totally safe seat, it will make taking control of Congress even more difficult.

RCP has the "no toss ups" numbers in favor of the Repubs, 52 to 47 (including the two I's, no Kansas).

The Repubs hold a general edge of 46-44, with ten toss-ups.

Looking at those ten races, it's pretty easy to pick five going GOP.

I voted yes. I think they will squeak out the slimmest of majorities. My major reason for thinking that is the Senate race in my own state (Alaska) where incumbent Democrat Begich is facing a strong challenge from Republican Sullivan. Earlier in the summer, most polls showed Begich with a slight edge, but the most recent ones (last week) show Sullivan pulling ahead. That's a seat the Dems thought they might just keep, but now looks less likely.

caw

As of today, the GOP takes it - but they have a knack for blowing it so I wouldn't be totally surprised if the Dems keep it at 50-50.

Obama's low polling numbers and the less than robust economy really help the Republicans - but there is plenty of time for an October Surprise or an October Implosion.

Some coverage from the New York Times…

They list the five incumbents most likely to lose their seats as: Pryor, Begich, Landrieu, Udall, and Roberts. That's four democrats and one republican.

Best guesstimate. Senate Majority Leader McConnell, anyone?

The GOP takes the Senate, holds the House and President Obama goes into instant lame duck mode. The only consolation is the Republicans won't grab enough of a majority for the Senate to convict once the House impeaches Obama in 2015.

William Haskins said:

the information in your link looks suspiciously like the information in the OP...

bizarre.

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LOL. Sorry William, didn't bother to look at the link in the OP.

Poor William. Everyone ignores him.

nighttimer said:

The GOP takes the Senate, holds the House and President Obama goes into instant lame duck mode.

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I think he's been a lame duck for a while now......and that won't change even if the Dems rally and hold the Senate.

If I were a betting man, GoP takes it.

But who the hell knows?

Vince524 said:

If I were a betting man, GoP takes it.

But who the hell knows?

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Eh, none of us knows. But we may as well make fools of ourselves by guessing.

Note that Haskins is too wise to do this. And yet we've all fallen into his clever snare.

I'll do my best to prevent it!

Pretty much what I think. Hope I'm wrong.

But you know what they say. Nothing suckseeds like sucksess.

William Haskins said:

i usually wait a day or two to vote in my own polls.

i think the GOP is going to steal a small edge. and it will usher in a sucktastic era of suck.

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They suck now, bigtime! Any major dude will tell you. So I think my fallow Americans will not be sucked into further suck-a-tude - by my twisted pretzel logic!!