Could non-citizens decide the November election?

William Haskins

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Could control of the Senate in 2014 be decided by illegal votes cast by non-citizens? Some argue that incidents of voting by non-citizens are so rare as to be inconsequential, with efforts to block fraud a screen for an agenda to prevent poor and minority voters from exercising the franchise, while others define such incidents as a threat to democracy itself. Both sides depend more heavily on anecdotes than data.

In a forthcoming article in the journal Electoral Studies, we bring real data from big social science survey datasets to bear on the question of whether, to what extent, and for whom non-citizens vote in U.S. elections. Most non-citizens do not register, let alone vote. But enough do that their participation can change the outcome of close races.
...

Because non-citizens tended to favor Democrats (Obama won more than 80 percent of the votes of non-citizens in the 2008 CCES sample), we find that this participation was large enough to plausibly account for Democratic victories in a few close elections. Non-citizen votes could have given Senate Democrats the pivotal 60th vote needed to overcome filibusters in order to pass health-care reform and other Obama administration priorities in the 111th Congress. Sen. Al Franken (D-Minn.) won election in 2008 with a victory margin of 312 votes. Votes cast by just 0.65 percent of Minnesota non-citizens could account for this margin. It is also possible that non-citizen votes were responsible for Obama’s 2008 victory in North Carolina. Obama won the state by 14,177 votes, so a turnout by 5.1 percent of North Carolina’s adult non-citizens would have provided this victory margin.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...ld-non-citizens-decide-the-november-election/

see also:

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261379414000973

http://projects.iq.harvard.edu/cces/home
 

veinglory

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How exactly do non-citizen's get on the electoral role? Whether you have ID or not you have to be using the name of a registered voter, surely?
 

Gregg

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How exactly do non-citizen's get on the electoral role? Whether you have ID or not you have to be using the name of a registered voter, surely?

Legal non-citizen residents can get a driver's license. Many states only require the license number to register to vote. But you have to check a box stating you are a citizen - which means that in many states non-citizens can register to vote if they lie.

Each state has its own registration rules - so it really varies by state.
 

Hoplite

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Seeing as 37.0% of the voting-age-population participated in the 2010 elections for state representatives, 57.1% for presidential election in 2008, and 53.3% for state representatives in 2008 I don't really care if non-citizens vote. If a large portion of voting-eligible-citizens don't care about who their elected representatives are, then I don't see why non-citizens (who have to live with the same consequences of who's elected) voting is a problem.

I don't think non-citizens should vote (and according to the linked articles in the OP, the vast majority do not). If people are concerned that non-citizen votes are the deciding factor in close-races here's a wild idea: get the other 40% (or more) of the country's voting population to vote. That will easily dilute whatever effect non-citizen voting has to zilch.

The problem isn't a few hundred non-citizens casting votes, it's several million voting-eligible-citizens not bothering to do so.
 

Diana Hignutt

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Voting irregularities do, in fact, occur, but generally happen at the voting machine company level (I'm looking at you Diebold) and have tended to favor incumbent Republican presidential candidates...
 

Diana Hignutt

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Seeing as 37.0% of the voting-age-population participated in the 2010 elections for state representatives, 57.1% for presidential election in 2008, and 53.3% for state representatives in 2008 I don't really care if non-citizens vote. If a large portion of voting-eligible-citizens don't care about who their elected representatives are, then I don't see why non-citizens (who have to live with the same consequences of who's elected) voting is a problem.

I don't think non-citizens should vote (and according to the linked articles in the OP, the vast majority do not). If people are concerned that non-citizen votes are the deciding factor in close-races here's a wild idea: get the other 40% (or more) of the country's voting population to vote. That will easily dilute whatever effect non-citizen voting has to zilch.

The problem isn't a few hundred non-citizens casting votes, it's several million voting-eligible-citizens not bothering to do so.

On the national level some people feel that voting provides the illusion of democracy between two corporately owned parties and signals the consent of the governed. Some people, therefore feel that not voting can be looked upon as not consenting to such a sham. Sometimes, people do or don't do things for reasons beyond simply not bothering.
 

Hoplite

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On the national level some people feel that voting provides the illusion of democracy between two corporately owned parties and signals the consent of the governed. Some people, therefore feel that not voting can be looked upon as not consenting to such a sham. Sometimes, people do or don't do things for reasons beyond simply not bothering.

Granted. I was more thinking in terms of rebutting the argument that non-citizens determine election outcomes by pointing out the large amount of citizens who, for whatever reason, do not vote and if did could easily make non-citizen voting inconsequential.

I didn't mean to demean people who choose not to vote, and apologize for it if that's how it came across.
 

Diana Hignutt

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Granted. I was more thinking in terms of rebutting the argument that non-citizens determine election outcomes by pointing out the large amount of citizens who, for whatever reason, do not vote and if did could easily make non-citizen voting inconsequential.

I didn't mean to demean people who choose not to vote, and apologize for it if that's how it came across.

Apology unnecessary, I was just making the point for completeness. You're larger point remains untarnished and sound.
 

Wilde_at_heart

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Unfortunately local elections - where you actually can make a difference - tend to have the lowest voter turn out of all. The Toronto mayoral vote turnout was 60% and that's unusually high.
 

William Haskins

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Non-citizens cannot and do nor vote no matter what the right side wing nuts say.

They can't? Explain?

typical wing nut question.

show me one state that has any proof of any non-citizens being on their voting rolls...

oh..
Board of Elections finalizes citizenship audit

RALEIGH, N.C. — The State Board of Elections today completed an audit of more than 10,000 registered voters with questionable citizenship status. The Agency analyzed data provided by the N.C. Division of Motor Vehicles and the U.S. Department of Homeland Security to flag 1,425 currently registered voters who are likely non-citizens.

“We are working to ensure that no ballot cast by a non-citizen will count in this or any future election,” said Executive Director Kim Westbrook Strach of the State Board of Elections. “Our ongoing partnership with DMV strengthens the integrity of our elections process and security of the voter rolls.”

State Board administrators are preparing guidance instructing elections officials to challenge ballots cast by those identified as non-citizens. The challenge process will provide notice and an opportunity for the voter to present proof of citizenship.
http://www.ncsbe.gov/ncsbe/press-releases?udt_2226_param_detail=15
 

RichardGarfinkle

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typical wing nut question.

show me one state that has any proof of any non-citizens being on their voting rolls...

oh..
http://www.ncsbe.gov/ncsbe/press-releases?udt_2226_param_detail=15

I wasn't going to let you bait me this election, William, but the implicit statistics in that article need unpacking.

The State Board of Elections today completed an audit of more than 10,000 registered voters with questionable citizenship status. The Agency analyzed data provided by the N.C. Division of Motor Vehicles and the U.S. Department of Homeland Security to flag 1,425 currently registered voters who are likely non-citizens.
So, they had 10,000 questionable voters out of North Carolina's population of 9.8 million. Of those, they found 1,425 "likely" non citizens.

Note, this was not a random sample of 10,000 voters. It seems to be the total population of "questionable" registered voters. So the real statistic is that they may have found as many as 1,425 in the entire state or less than 1/100 of 1% of the population.

Looking at their election rolls, the total number of registered voters looks to be around 6.5 million. So that makes around 1/50th of 1%.

Furthermore, North Carolina elections can have recounts forced if the vote margins are too low.
For offices completely within a county board's jurisdiction, or for non-statewide contests within the state board's jurisdiction, the difference between the apparent winning candidate and the next candidate must be 1% or less of the total votes cast for that office. For statewide contests, the difference must be 0.5% of the total votes cast, or less than 10,000 votes, whichever is less.
 

backslashbaby

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If it's worth anything, we do have a really high number of undocumented Latinos. Actually, they usually find documents ;)

Businesses rely on them. We know what's up. It's all good*. Most of them still pay taxes, even. The numbers who vote are really small, considering.

My biggest problem is learning a new name to call someone after several years. That feels kinda strange!

eta* - oops, I'd better mention that we did have some slavery-like workplace conditions for some workers. That's obviously not OK. That's the real problem with it, imho. Not a tiny bit of voting.
 
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kaitie

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I was under the impression that even a person with a green card is unable to vote. I had a friend who is from overseas (but a citizen) tell me once that she wasn't allowed to vote. At least that's what I remember. This was also ages ago, and I might very well be remembering completely wrong.