As she launches what is likely to be a frontrunning and cautious primary campaign, there is no denying that Hillary Clinton is one of the most durable political figures in American history.
Immersed in politics since the early 1970s, she has been a universally recognized national figure since 1992. Whether elected president or not, Clinton is guaranteed top billing through 2016 — her 24th consecutive year in the headlines.
Think back over the years since 1900. Few presidential-level politicians are in her category: Teddy Roosevelt, William Jennings Bryan, Franklin Roosevelt, Richard Nixon, Lyndon Johnson, Hubert Humphrey, Ted Kennedy, Ronald Reagan, and George H.W. Bush. Should she make it to the White House, Clinton will have longevity surpassing every one of these other luminaries. (Notice that six of the nine became president, and three failed.)
There are obviously advantages and disadvantages to this status. Here’s a two-sided example. Much of her image is set in concrete. Attempts to radically redefine her are doomed; we all think we know her virtues and vices. On the other hand, attacks on Clinton that do not fit the decades-long narrative of her persona will likely fall flat.
There’s plenty of time to assess Clinton’s general election chances. For now, let’s focus on her nomination odds. Despite the secret-email controversy, she’s in good shape at the starting gate.
While the Clinton announcement surprises no one, the fact that she now is officially a candidate puts to rest the occasional whispers that she might have decided against a run for health or family reasons. It also allows us to freshen up our rankings of the Democratic presidential contenders, which included several potential candidates who appeared as though they would only run if the favored Clinton took a surprising pass on the race.
Comparisons to 2008, when Clinton lost as the frontrunner, are off-base. Not only does the current field of challengers lack a political prospect nearly of the caliber that Barack Obama was in 2007, but it is also missing even someone like John Edwards, who while disgraced now was a very credible candidate at this time eight years ago, having served as John Kerry’s VP running mate in 2004.
In other words: Clinton’s worst national poll since the start of last year is still better than her best poll during the 2008 cycle.
