Cuban-American relations heading towards normalization?

I hear Cuba is beautiful, too. It would benefit their economy to open them up to tourism (as long as it's not overdone).

^
The article was pretty clear that tourism is still off the table, right now.

I think Obama is going in the right direction here, but there's only so much he can do without Congress.

I've always thought that an embargo was a stupid way to handle Cuba. Turn it into a mecca for ugly americans and it won't take long for the average cuban to figure out they're getting the short end of the stick.

I can hardly wait for the new cruise ports to open up, too. Cozumel, Grand Cayman, and Jamaica could use some new competition.

It's a good first step, though lifting the embargo and normalizing relations with Cuba will have to go through Congress – and that's still a very iffy proposition.

Here's Marco Rubio's expected response to Obama's initiative:

Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) on Wednesday slammed a deal that released captive USAID contractor Alan Gross in exchange for three Cubans jailed in the United States for spying, branding President Barack Obama as potentially the "worst negotiator" in the history of the nation.

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http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/marco-rubio-obama-worst-negotiator-alan-gross

I always felt like how we treated Cuba was...really silly.

Communism isn't like ebola, it isn't airborn or anything...

Zoombie said:

I always felt like how we treated Cuba was...really silly.

Communism isn't like ebola, it isn't airborn or anything...

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Americans used to think it was. Or at least carried by fluoridated water.

Awesome - this was such a monumentally dopey policy.

Cuba has a decent tourism industry, just not fed by people from the U.S., unless they route through Canada, which some certainly do.

I admit I also kind of love that Castro 'wins.' Decades of trying to off the guy with poisoned milkshakes and exploding cigars and all manner of Keystone tomfoolery and while no longer president, he's still standing and the U.S. policy shifts.

The local news went to a local Cuban-heavy area looking for outrage and couldn't find any. The reporter doing the piece said she was sure many people are upset, but the first however many they asked (two of the three or four on camera were older, one 60 or 70, the other maybe 50), were all very happy and excited about the development. There were people upset in Miami, that CNN had on camera, but I thought it was kind of interesting the local news couldn't find anyone.

rugcat said:

It's a good first step, though lifting the embargo and normalizing relations with Cuba will have to go through Congress – and that's still a very iffy proposition.

Here's Marco Rubio's expected response to Obama's initiative:

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/marco-rubio-obama-worst-negotiator-alan-gross

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Unfortunately, Rubio is probably speaking for a large portion, perhaps even the majority, of Cubans Americans, particularly among those in the older generations who actually lived in Cuba before crossing shark infested waters in leaky boats made of whatever scraps they can throw together to come here. And while I also think Obama is headed in the right direction, he's not gonna get them to change their tune unless he shows that this is about moving Cuba away from Communism and towards American freedoms as opposed to making America more like Cuba. And to be sure, I think Obama is totally capable of convincing Cubans of this. His ability to convince people that his plans will work and have worked is superb, just off the charts. That's one of the critical reasons he got elected to the WH twice.

rugcat said:

It's a good first step, though lifting the embargo and normalizing relations with Cuba will have to go through Congress – and that's still a very iffy proposition.

Here's Marco Rubio's expected response to Obama's initiative:

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/marco-rubio-obama-worst-negotiator-alan-gross

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Bob Menendez made similar comments….

"President Obama's actions have vindicated the brutal behavior of the Cuban government," he said in a statement. "Trading Mr. Gross for three convicted criminals sets an extremely dangerous precedent. It invites dictatorial and rogue regimes to use Americans serving overseas as bargaining chips."

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But the way Rubio and Menendez are framing what happened doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me. It's not a simple three-for-one swap, since there are other aspects of the deal (including other people being released).

And the Fox article notes that two of the so-called Cuba Five were already released because their sentences were completed. If that's what would've happened to the rest of them if enough time passed, why not trade them now while we can still get something in return?

Michael Wolfe said:

Bob Menendez made similar comments….

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Dman I was literally seconds away from posting that. That said, note just how similar their comments are in spite of the fact that they are almost as close to being on opposite ends of the political spectrum as you can get in Congress. I think many Cuban Americans will have difficulty seeign this from a purely rational perspective, understandably so.

cornflake said:

I admit I also kind of love that Castro 'wins.'

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I think you should take into consideration that there may be people reading this thread who suffered, saw loved ones suffer and might still have loved ones suffering under Castro's regime before making statements like that.

Personally, I wouldn't care that America normalized ties with Cuba if concessions were made both ways, but what does America get out of this? What assurance is there that the Cuban government will treat their people any differently? What will stop the Cuban government from throwing any political prisoners they release right back into prison at their leisure?

I realize this opinion will be in the minority on this forum but it seems to me the Obama administration went at lengths to give the Castros everything they want without ensuring that they get something substantial in return, which makes no sense to me.

zerosystem said:

I think you should take into consideration that there may be people reading this thread who suffered, saw loved ones suffer and might still have loved ones suffering under Castro's regime before making statements like that.

Personally, I wouldn't care that America normalized ties with Cuba if concessions were made both ways, but what does America get out of this? What assurance is there that the Cuban government will treat their people any differently? What will stop the Cuban government from throwing any political prisoners they release right back into prison at their leisure?

I realize this opinion will be in the minority on this forum but it seems to me the Obama administration went at lengths to give the Castros everything they want without ensuring that they get something substantial in return, which makes no sense to me.

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Maybe we can be the minority together because this is word for word my personal opinion on this subject. We can be the two outliers here and have fun with it.

raburrell said:

Not sure that making sense has ever been one of Rubio's strong points

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As far as Congresspeople go [in either Party], Rubio's well above average in terms of his ability to make sense. Not that it is saying much at all of course, quote Mark Twain, "suppose you are an idiot and a member of Congress. But I repeat myself"

raburrell said:

Obama's remarks included the fact that one of the other individuals released was an actual spy - a Cuban who was instrumental in the capture of the Cuba Five, who's been held there for 20 years. Plus there were additional dissidents released, etc.

Other reaction - Lindsay Graham says he's going to do everything in his power to block funds for any embassy-building.

eta: In terms of those who've suffered at Castro's hands, the embargo has always done more to keep him in power than knock him out of it. IMO.

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I think the release of dissidents can without a doubt help convince people that Obama is indeed on the right track but a lot more progress and proof of the success of this needs to be shown still. Lindsey Graham is a gargantuan tool even by Congressional standards but unless Cuba makes real steps in its human rights situation this may be seen as a case of supreme jerkass has a point. As for the Embargo hurting people, that is a subject for an entire separate and massive debate.

This should have been done 25 years ago. Maybe even longer ago.

zerosystem said:

Personally, I wouldn't care that America normalized ties with Cuba if concessions were made both ways, but what does America get out of this?

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You read the links in the OP, right?

What assurance is there that the Cuban government will treat their people any differently?

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Does it really matter?

Besides, Cuba is basically being held to a unique standard with regard to human rights issues. The US has normalized relations with plenty of countries that are far worse in that regard. We didn't need assurances for anyone else, so why Cuba?

raburrell said:

eta: In terms of those who've suffered at Castro's hands, the embargo has always done more to keep him in power than knock him out of it. IMO.

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Yes, I think that's a key point here. Embargoes typically solidify power (as we're seeing in Russia, imo).

And specifically with Castro, people who have followed him know that he has a history of using the embargo as a scapegoat.

raburrell said:

For starters, Rubio's science denialism has been pretty widely reported. So while he's hardly alone in that in Congress (sadly), it doesn't really give him a place anywhere near the top of the heap.

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I maintain that his competition is so low that even if he is guilty of climate change denial, he can still be at the top of the heap. Nonetheless, I was wondering, who would be a couple examples of people in Congress from each of the two Parties whom you do think are near the top in terms of making sense and explaining their views even if you think they are sometimes, or in the case of the Republicans, usually wrong?

Michael Wolfe said:

You read the links in the OP, right?

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I meant significant concessions at the level the US made. I don't see any.

Does it really matter?

Besides, Cuba is basically being held to a unique standard with regard to human rights issues. The US has normalized relations with plenty of countries that are far worse in that regard. We didn't need assurances for anyone else, so why Cuba?

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It does matter. Why break the embargo unless you can get something from it? It was America's leverage and now it's gone.

Also, China and Vietnam, for example, are not the same countries today as they were then. Look at the protests in Hong Kong. The Chinese government would have responded very differently to that 30 years ago.

raburrell said:

Getting pretty far off topic...

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Yes, my bad. Funny how that happens so quickly in politics. part of the reason why it is rarely recommended to get into discussions over this or religion in the first place ...

But anyway, the point remains that there needs to be proof that lifting the embargo and normalizing relations needs to be accomplishing major steps towards getting Cuba to improve their atrocious human rights violations and moving towards a less repressive gov't and that they will not be rewarding for being a totalitarian nation. Again, I think Obama can accomplish this and convince the majority of Americans he is accomplishing it, I just don't know if he will.

zerosystem said:

I meant significant concessions at the level the US made. I don't see any.

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Cuba is releasing more prisoners than the US is. One could argue it's Cuba that's making the significant concessions, if anyone.

It does matter. Why break the embargo unless you can get something from it? It was America's leverage and now it's gone.

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It was never really leverage at all, even if you might wish that it was. And again, we are getting something out of this deal. If that's not enough for you, then fine. I suppose you could argue that.

Also, China and Vietnam, for example, are not the same countries today as they were then. Look at the protests in Hong Kong. The Chinese government would have responded very differently to that 30 years ago.

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That sort of supports my point though. Even when China was worse, the US was still willing to have diplomatic ties.

But let's not give China too much credit here. I really don't think their current record compares all that favorably with Cuba.

emax100 said:

But anyway, the point remains that there needs to be proof that lifting the embargo and normalizing relations needs to be accomplishing major steps towards getting Cuba to improve their atrocious human rights violations and moving towards a less repressive gov't and that they will not be rewarding for being a totalitarian nation. Again, I think Obama can accomplish this and convince the majority of Americans he is accomplishing it, I just don't know if he will.

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And in the process, maybe Cuba can get America to improve its own atrocious human rights violations and moving toward a less repressive government.

The hysterical hair-on-fire response from the scurvy likes of Marco Rubio and petulant little pukes like Lindsay Graham would be amusing it wasn't so reactionary and tone deaf.

When Nixon normalized relations with the Soviet Union and Red China he was knocked as being the biggest appeaser of tyrants since Neville Chamberlain. Forget the naysayers. If the U.S. can talk with superpowers with ICBM's pointed at our major cities, it can talk to an impoverished island 90 miles south of Florida.

The predictably cloddish response from the Right is evidence yet again of the truth behind the quote "a conservative believes nothing should be done for the first time."

Definitely not when Barack Obama is doing it.