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Drachen Jager

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The .5% thing, I still maintain (in my optimistic delusional way) is a slight misrepresentation.

Well, it's certainly untrue from a statistical perspective.

IMO

90% will never be published, no matter how long they try. They either don't have what it takes or use the wrong methods to learn.

9% will gain the necessary skills if they put in the effort.

1% already have what it takes and just have to write the 'right' manuscript to get it published.

Most of us here at AW, I believe, are in the 9%. It is my guesstimation that it takes about five years on average for someone in that 9% to reach that coveted 1%. Some take longer, some less, some go to school, some just write a half-dozen manuscripts to gain the skills. Many of us have already been several years on that road and are getting close, but ultimately, if you have the talent and you stick with it and work in the right ways you'll get there.
 

HoneyBadger

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Well, it's certainly untrue from a statistical perspective.

IMO

90% will never be published, no matter how long they try. They either don't have what it takes or use the wrong methods to learn.

9% will gain the necessary skills if they put in the effort.

1% already have what it takes and just have to write the 'right' manuscript to get it published.

Most of us here at AW, I believe, are in the 9%. It is my guesstimation that it takes about five years on average for someone in that 9% to reach that coveted 1%. Some take longer, some less, some go to school, some just write a half-dozen manuscripts to gain the skills. Many of us have already been several years on that road and are getting close, but ultimately, if you have the talent and you stick with it and work in the right ways you'll get there.

Such a good way of looking at it.
 

RKLipman

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Well, it's certainly untrue from a statistical perspective.

IMO

90% will never be published, no matter how long they try. They either don't have what it takes or use the wrong methods to learn.

9% will gain the necessary skills if they put in the effort.

1% already have what it takes and just have to write the 'right' manuscript to get it published.

Most of us here at AW, I believe, are in the 9%. It is my guesstimation that it takes about five years on average for someone in that 9% to reach that coveted 1%. Some take longer, some less, some go to school, some just write a half-dozen manuscripts to gain the skills. Many of us have already been several years on that road and are getting close, but ultimately, if you have the talent and you stick with it and work in the right ways you'll get there.

Well spake.
 

Old Hack

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There are two different statistics at play here.

There's the level of work in the slush pile, for which it's probably true that less than 1% is publishable; then there's the probability of getting published. Most books and authors have no chance at all of ever finding a trade contract; a very few have a really good chance. The odds are different for each author, and for each book that they write.
 

Taylor

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I read that link Old Hack gave. It was informative, and kind of confidence building. Maybe it is so, and most of the stuff in the slush pile is unpublishable.

I'm not sure if you guys are taking the stance that this is easier than it is made out to be, or tougher. Ha I actually am confounded by all this.

But anyway, HoneyBadger, why do you say your book isn't solid? I thought you were confident about it?
 

HoneyBadger

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I *am* confident that it's a good book. I'm also confident that after polishing it will be a *very* good book.

But it took 2 months to write and a month to revise, so the least I can do for it is forget about it for a month, let the betas come back with their thoughts, and tighten, support themes, flesh out the end, and generally make it shine.

If I sent it out now, it might do okay. If I wait until it shines, it has a very good chance of being picked up.

It's not a race.
 
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twright

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Never think about it that way. If you think your novel's ready to be published, you'd better feel totally confident that it's better than 99% of submissions.

Let's break it down:

90%- literally unpublishable. These aren't just boring stories written with a lot of adverbs, these are manuscripts that may not even be written entirely in letters recognizable to humans.
5%- while still better than 90% of the other submissions, these manuscripts aren't great. Sure, they tell a story, but it's a boring story, or it's a great story that's been told to death.
4%- These manuscripts are fine. Compelling, well-written, but they're not what the agent's looking for.
1%- This is where your MS should be before you query. Well-written, compelling, and *for the agent you're querying.*

That means don't shop your SF/F saga to an agent who doesn't rep SF/F, or maybe she does, but has only sold a tiny fraction of those books. That means research agents: for me, I'm putting agents who are passionate about insider stories with strong voice and dark humor way above the agents who like more lyrical literary family sagas.

100% of 90% of submitted queries will never be represented or sold, so don't worry about those guys. Either you're in that 90%, or you're not. If you're not, focus on beating out the remaining 9%. If an agent gets 100 queries a week, 90 of them will be auto-rejects. Just make your query, your story, better than 9 other ones. It's that easy.

(So sayeth the woman who is baking her story until it's ready to go, and is researching agents until she finds the exact right top ones.)

I like the way you explain it. That's pretty much what I've heard as well, but never quite that succinct.
 

kobold

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HoneyBadger has the correct mindset. It is not easy to set aside a manuscript for x length of time, but that is often exactly what can help turn it from good to very good.

Getting published will always be a long shot for first-time authors, but each improvement to the ms. improves that chance of standing out from the crowd.
 

HoneyBadger

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(I'm probably going to be ready to query come, oh, Wednesday. So apparently I take back all the waiting, because I UNFUCKED THE ENDING!)
 

Dennis E. Taylor

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90%- literally unpublishable. These aren't just boring stories written with a lot of adverbs, these are manuscripts that may not even be written entirely in letters recognizable to humans.

I know this is a necro, but that line made me spit coffee on my monitor. :ROFL: